8.3
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
#28
rank
-10.1
rating (points, neutral field)
10-7
record (2024)
-3.7
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Tampa Bay sits at 28th with a neutral-field rating of -10.1, meaning they'd be roughly a 10-point underdog to an average team, and their -3.67 vs-market gap says the books have been pricing them even worse than that. The 2.66-point rating jump is real progress, but with Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield, and Benjamin Morrison all out and 8.3 points already docked for those absences, this is a roster held together with tape at 1-4. I'd treat any short line as a sell until the injury situation clears, because a -0.02 EPA differential and 20 points per game over the last five won't cover spreads on their own.
Unavailable this week(-8.3 pts of rating)
- Baker Mayfield · QB · Out-7.0
- Antoine Winfield · S · Out-0.7
- Benjamin Morrison · CB · Out-0.5
- SirVocea Dennis · LB · Out-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2024 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | #12 | 1-0 | +0.5 | -1.3 | +0.4 | — |
| 2024 | 2 | #10 | 2-0 | +1.6 | -2.0 | +6.7 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 3 | #15 | 2-1 | -1.3 | -1.5 | +1.9 | -2.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | #12 | 3-1 | +0.8 | -3.9 | +5.6 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 5 | #9 | 3-2 | +1.7 | -2.0 | +6.2 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 6 | #6 | 4-2 | +5.2 | -3.3 | +5.9 | +3.5 |
| 2024 | 7 | #9 | 4-3 | +3.2 | -3.6 | +6.1 | -2.0 |
| 2024 | 8 | #12 | 4-4 | +1.6 | -2.9 | +5.2 | -1.6 |
| 2024 | 9 | #14 | 4-5 | +0.7 | -3.2 | +4.0 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 10 | #15 | 4-6 | -0.8 | -3.8 | +2.4 | -1.6 |
| 2024 | 11 | #12 | 4-6 | +2.2 | — | +6.2 | +3.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | #13 | 5-6 | +1.5 | -2.3 | +3.5 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 13 | #16 | 6-6 | -0.4 | -2.4 | +2.1 | -1.9 |
| 2024 | 14 | #16 | 7-6 | +0.1 | -2.8 | +2.2 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 15 | #8 | 8-6 | +2.6 | -3.3 | +5.0 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 16 | #7 | 8-7 | +2.7 | -2.2 | +5.1 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 17 | #8 | 9-7 | +3.6 | -4.3 | +6.1 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 18 | #8 | 10-7 | +2.9 | -4.1 | +4.3 | -0.7 |