8.3
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
#28
rank
-10.1
rating (points, neutral field)
8-9
record (2025)
-3.7
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Tampa Bay sits at 28th with a neutral-field rating of -10.1, meaning they'd be roughly a 10-point underdog to an average team, and their -3.67 vs-market gap says the books have been pricing them even worse than that. The 2.66-point rating jump is real progress, but with Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield, and Benjamin Morrison all out and 8.3 points already docked for those absences, this is a roster held together with tape at 1-4. I'd treat any short line as a sell until the injury situation clears, because a -0.02 EPA differential and 20 points per game over the last five won't cover spreads on their own.
Unavailable this week(-8.3 pts of rating)
- Baker Mayfield · QB · Out-7.0
- Antoine Winfield · S · Out-0.7
- Benjamin Morrison · CB · Out-0.5
- SirVocea Dennis · LB · Out-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2025 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | #27 | 1-0 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -1.8 | — |
| 2025 | 2 | #13 | 2-0 | +0.1 | -1.5 | +0.8 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 3 | #17 | 3-0 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -1.9 |
| 2025 | 4 | #25 | 3-1 | -6.0 | -5.4 | -5.6 | -4.2 |
| 2025 | 5 | #16 | 4-1 | -2.0 | -4.4 | -1.4 | +4.0 |
| 2025 | 6 | #14 | 5-1 | -1.0 | -4.8 | -0.5 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 7 | #13 | 5-2 | -0.6 | -3.2 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 8 | #12 | 6-2 | +0.6 | -3.7 | +2.1 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 9 | #6 | 6-2 | +4.3 | — | +5.3 | +3.7 |
| 2025 | 10 | #11 | 6-3 | +1.1 | -2.5 | +2.2 | -3.2 |
| 2025 | 11 | #9 | 6-4 | +0.7 | -1.6 | +2.7 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 12 | #17 | 6-5 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -0.4 | -2.6 |
| 2025 | 13 | #19 | 7-5 | -3.5 | -3.6 | -2.8 | -1.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | #20 | 7-6 | -3.4 | -2.0 | -2.7 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 15 | #22 | 7-7 | -5.1 | -2.7 | -4.7 | -1.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | #17 | 7-8 | -2.5 | -0.1 | -2.1 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 17 | #16 | 7-9 | -4.1 | -1.2 | -3.2 | -1.6 |
| 2025 | 18 | #19 | 8-9 | -4.8 | -1.8 | -3.5 | -0.7 |