8.5
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
Washington sits dead last at 32 with a -15.806 neutral-field rating, and that number already bakes in an 8.5-point injury dock for Mariota, Diggs, and a questionable McLaurin, so the roster on the field is even thinner than the rating implies. The last-five profile is ugly on both sides: 23.0 points scored against 29.8 allowed, a -0.0568 EPA per play, and a -6.8 point differential, which is exactly what you'd expect from a 1-3 team. The market is giving them -5.5 versus their rating, meaning books are pricing Washington about five and a half points better than this model does, so I'm selling them hard and looking to fade any spread that asks them to stay within a touchdown.
Unavailable this week(-8.5 pts of rating)
- Marcus Mariota · QB · Out-4.7
- Stefon Diggs · WR · Out-2.0
- Terry McLaurin · WR · Questionable-0.5
- Jeremy McNichols · RB · Questionable-0.2
- Charles Omenihu · DE · Out-0.2
- Nicolas Cross · S · Out-0.2
- Percy Butler · S · Out-0.2
- Deatrich Wise · DE · Questionable-0.1
- K'Lavon Chaisson · LB · Did Not Participate In Practice-0.1
- Rachaad White · RB · Limited Participation in Practice-0.1
- Tyler Owens · S · Out-0.1
- Trenayvian Amos · CB · Questionable-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2023 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | #18 | 1-0 | -0.8 | -0.3 | -6.7 | — |
| 2023 | 2 | #19 | 2-0 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -2.0 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 3 | #28 | 2-1 | -9.4 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -7.9 |
| 2023 | 4 | #23 | 2-2 | -4.5 | -0.1 | +3.1 | +4.9 |
| 2023 | 5 | #29 | 2-3 | -11.3 | -0.3 | -6.6 | -6.8 |
| 2023 | 6 | #27 | 3-3 | -8.8 | -0.2 | -4.3 | +2.5 |
| 2023 | 7 | #26 | 3-4 | -9.1 | -0.3 | -5.0 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 8 | #27 | 3-5 | -9.7 | -1.9 | -4.4 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 9 | #27 | 4-5 | -9.9 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 10 | #27 | 4-6 | -9.0 | -2.1 | -3.3 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 11 | #30 | 4-7 | -10.6 | -1.8 | -6.5 | -1.6 |
| 2023 | 12 | #29 | 4-8 | -11.7 | -1.4 | -5.5 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 13 | #31 | 4-9 | -13.3 | -0.9 | -6.2 | -1.6 |
| 2023 | 14 | #28 | 4-9 | -11.5 | — | -3.6 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 15 | #31 | 4-10 | -13.0 | -2.3 | -4.0 | -1.5 |
| 2023 | 16 | #30 | 4-11 | -13.0 | -3.2 | -3.8 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 17 | #31 | 4-12 | -15.8 | -5.5 | -6.0 | -2.8 |
| 2023 | 18 | #31 | 4-13 | -14.7 | -2.9 | -4.4 | +1.1 |