Tyrese Haliburton's Achilles Rehab Nears the Finish Line — And the Pacers' Ceiling Comes Back With Him

A year ago, the Indiana Pacers were two wins from the franchise's first NBA title, taking the Oklahoma City Thunder to Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Then the worst-case scenario hit in that final game: Tyrese Haliburton tore his right Achilles.

The subsequent season was grim. Without their engine, the Pacers staggered to a 19-63 record, posting a minus-8.0 point differential while coughing up 120.4 points per game. The winnable window that seemed so wide open in June 2025 suddenly had an expiry date printed on it.

This week, Haliburton finally gave Pacers fans a reason to believe that window is reopening.

A charity appearance with real weight

At the return of the Charity Softball Classic at Victory Field — staged alongside Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones — Haliburton hyped up the crowd with a big message on his return. He's been attacking his Achilles rehab for the past year and is reportedly nearing the finish line as the 2026-27 season approaches.

The connection with Jones is a nice footnote: the two franchise cornerstones, from different leagues and different sports, bonded over shared Achilles recoveries, comparing notes and preparing for returns this fall. Jones' own rehab timeline has tracked Haliburton's, giving each player a sounding board who actually understands the grind.

But the excitement isn't just sentimental. Haliburton's presence changes the math for Indiana's entire season.

How the dominoes fall

Before the injury, Haliburton was a nightly triple-double threat and the clear focal point of an elite offensive system. Career splits show how much the Pacers lean on him: as a starter, he's averaged 18.2 points, 9.3 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game, with a 60.7% true shooting percentage. His home numbers (17.9 points, 9.3 assists, plus-2.4 plus-minus) versus his away numbers (minus-1.7) illustrate just how much of Indiana's identity runs through him.

That's why the offseason front office moves — the Ivica Zubac trade, the Kelly Oubre Jr. signing, the additions of Obi Toppin and Jalen Slawson — all start to make sense with a healthy Haliburton in the middle of it. Lineup questions remain, particularly on the wings, where analysts have noted the current group doesn't fit perfectly together. But the entire roster was constructed around one idea: give Haliburton downhill threats and lob options to make his job easier.

The market seems to believe in the bounce-back. Indiana's season win total is set at 44.5 — a massive jump from last year's 19 wins, and a number that only makes sense if the league expects Haliburton to be close to his old self. For reference, he's listed at even longer odds for MVP honors than for Comeback Player of the Year — but those numbers reflect how much of his individual resume is tied to the season lost, not his talent level.

The real question

Can Haliburton return at full burst from an Achilles tear? That's the variable that no odds or projection can fully capture. The Pacers have the top-end talent to contend again — they proved that in the 2025 playoffs. But depth was their lingering worry last season, and the margin for error with a recovering star is thin.

The good news? Haliburton's message this week was confident. The bad news? Rehab progress and game-condition explosion are two different things. Indiana's preseason schedule opens October 7 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and that's when we'll get our first real look at whether the Pacers' ceiling has truly returned with their star.

One thing is certain: after a 19-win season, every Haliburton step matters more than any single play he's ever made.