NBA Power Rankings
Week 25, 2025 · as of 2026-04-13 · all 30 teams rated
Every team rated in points on a neutral field— a rating gap is the spread. Movement, strength of schedule, and Earl's take, re-cut each week. How it works · RSS
latest snapshot
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ ▲1 | 62-21 | +10.3 | — | San Antonio sits at No. 1 with a 10.32 neutral-field rating, a massive jump from last year's -3.54, and they've backed it up with a 62-21 record. The market is still catching up at just +2.25 vs the spread, so this is a clear buy — their rating implies they should be laying more than books are pricing. A slight -0.543 weekly dip and a soft -0.105 schedule are minor noise, and with zero injury points docked, there's no reason to fade them. |
| 2 | Δ ▲3 | 60-22 | +8.9 | — | Detroit sits at No. 2 with a neutral-field rating of 8.898, a massive 2.116-point jump in a single week and a huge leap from last year's 3.062 — this is a legit 60-22 team, not a fluke. The market is still catching up: at 2.85 points above the number, they're a clear buy, especially since that rating already factors in zero injury dock and a soft -0.705 schedule that only inflates their floor. |
| 3 | Δ ▼2 | 64-18 | +8.1 | -2.6 | Oklahoma City sits third with an 8.055 neutral-court rating, but that's down a steep 3.495 points from last week and well below last season's 12.748, so this is a clear sell-high signal. The market's -4.44 against them confirms the number is already shaded, and with Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe all inactive, the 2.64-point injury dock is doing real work here. |
| 4 | Δ – | 44-38 | +8.0 | — | Charlotte grades out as the 4th-best team in the league at 8.025 points better than average on a neutral floor, a massive leap from a prior-season rating of -11.922, and they've outperformed the market by 5.07 points. The -0.263 weekly dip is noise, but the -0.471 strength of schedule means this rating was built against softer competition, so I'd treat them as a slight sell at these prices. No key players are docked, so the number is clean — lay the points with caution, but don't chase them as a bargain. |
| 5 | Δ ▲1 | 54-29 | +7.1 | — | The Knicks rate 7.145 points better than an average team on a neutral floor, up a massive 1.544 points from last week, and they've outperformed the market by 1.94 points per game on their way to a 54-29 record. With no key players unavailable and a rating that dwarfs last season's 3.701, this is a clear buy — that 7.145 number means they should be laying roughly a touchdown against a neutral opponent, and the market may still be pricing them closer to last year's version. |
| 6 | Δ ▼3 | 56-26 | +5.5 | -3.5 | Boston sits at 6th with a 5.465 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast after a 3.281-point drop this week and already carries a 3.48-point dock for missing Queta, González, and Vučević. The 56-26 record looks shinier than the underlying profile, and with a -0.19 vs-market mark and a soft -0.358 schedule, this is a sell-high spot — the rating suggests they're closer to a coin-flip than the seed implies. |
| 7 | Δ ▲3 | 52-30 | +4.6 | — | Houston sits 7th with a 4.626 neutral-field rating, up 0.777 in a week, and their 52-30 record came against a slightly soft schedule (-0.365), so the resume is real but not battle-tested. The market is pricing them 1.44 points below their rating, which makes them a modest buy whenever the number drifts toward a field goal or more. With no injuries docked and a prior-season rating of just 3.695, this year's jump looks like genuine improvement rather than a fluke. |
| 8 | Δ – | 54-28 | +4.0 | -2.2 | Denver sits at a 4.0 neutral-field rating, eighth in the league, but that number is sliding fast — down 0.887 from last week and a full 0.98 points below where the market values them, which tells me the books are still pricing this roster closer to its 4.648 prior-season form. The 2.21-point injury dock is real and material with Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones, and Christian Braun all inactive, so this is a roster running thinner than its 54-28 record suggests. At a 4.0 rating they're a slight sell until those bodies return — the market's reluctance to drop them as fast as my numbers have is exactly where the value sits on the fade side. |
| 9 | Δ ▲3 | 46-36 | +3.4 | -0.7 | Toronto sits 9th with a +3.427 neutral-field rating, up 0.657 from last week, and they've been beating the market by 1.87 points, so this is a legit buy rather than a mirage. The rating already bakes in a 0.68-point dock for RJ Barrett being inactive, so even with him out they're priced as roughly a 3.4-point favorite against an average team on a neutral floor. With a near-neutral schedule (-0.052) and a massive +8.3-point swing from last year's -4.854 prior rating, the market may still be slow to fully price this jump. |
| 10 | Δ ▼1 | 52-30 | +3.0 | -0.6 | Cleveland sits 10th with a 2.959 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast after a 1.219-point drop week-over-week and sits a massive 5.556 points below last season's 8.515 mark. The market is already pricing the fade, with a vs_market gap of -2.83 suggesting books are shading the Cavs shorter than this rating implies, and Keon Ellis being inactive only adds to the case for selling Cleveland at current spreads. |
| 11 | Δ ▼4 | 46-36 | +2.5 | -2.1 | Atlanta sits 11th with a +2.533 neutral-field rating, but that number has cratered 2.595 points in a week and already bakes in a 2.08-point dock for the absences of Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels. A +2.533 rating implies this team should only be laying about a bucket at home against an average opponent, yet their 1.18 vs-market mark says the books have been shading them higher than that all year, so I'm selling Atlanta as an overrated play until the injury dock clears. |
| 12 | Δ ▲4 | 53-29 | +2.1 | -0.8 | The Lakers grade out 12th with a +2.064 neutral-field rating, up 1.119 from last week, though that number already eats a 0.75-point dock for Jaxson Hayes being inactive. Their 0.65 mark against the market says the books have been shading them slightly rich all year, so I'm selling LA at anything north of -2.5 and treating them as a live fade when the number creeps toward -4. |
| 13 | Δ ▼2 | 42-40 | +1.9 | — | The Clippers sit at 13th with a +1.864 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly 2-point favorites against an average team, but that number has cratered 0.927 points in a week and sits a massive 6.5 points below their 8.401 prior-season rating. That gap screams regression from last year's form, and with a soft -0.289 strength of schedule and a 42-40 record, this is a sell-high candidate if the market is still pricing them anywhere near their 2024-25 reputation. Their 0.73 mark vs the market suggests they've been slightly undervalued by oddsmakers, so the buy/sell call hinges on whether that -0.927 weekly drop is a blip or the start of a real slide. |
| 14 | Δ ▼1 | 49-33 | +1.4 | -1.2 | Minnesota sits at 14th with a +1.392 neutral-field rating, but that's a 1.335-point drop from last week and a massive fall from a 6.812 prior-season mark, so this is a clear sell-high signal. The rating already bakes in a 1.18-point dock for Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Hyland being inactive, yet the market still has them at -1.63 versus the number, meaning books are pricing them even lower than these numbers justify. |
| 15 | Δ ▲2 | 45-37 | +0.5 | — | Orlando sits at 15th with a neutral-field rating of 0.516, meaning they're basically a coin-flip team against an average opponent, and the 1.243 jump from last week is the real story here. The market has them at -1.3 versus the number, so there's a slight buy-low window if this upward trend holds. With no injuries docked and a 45-37 record, this is a team quietly outperforming its reputation. |
| 16 | Δ ▲3 | 42-40 | -0.1 | -1.4 | Portland sits at 16th with a -0.132 neutral-field rating, meaning they're essentially a pick'em team against an average opponent, and that number already eats a 1.45-point dock for Vít Krejčí being inactive. The 1.017-point jump versus last week is the real story here — this is a buy-low window before the market fully prices in that upward move, especially with a soft -0.148 schedule. At just -0.1 against the market, there's no edge fading or backing them blindly, but the trajectory says the rating is heading higher. |
| 17 | Δ ▲1 | 45-37 | -0.5 | — | Philadelphia sits at 17th with a neutral-field rating of -0.508, meaning they're essentially a half-point worse than an average team, but the 0.411 jump from last week signals real upward momentum. That rating is a massive leap from last year's -8.609, so this is a clear buy on a team the market hasn't fully caught up to, especially with a 0.52 cover rate against the number. With no key players docked and a near-neutral schedule, the -0.5 rating suggests they should be priced as a pick'em or slight dog in most spots, making them live value whenever the spread inflates past a field goal. |
| 18 | Δ ▼4 | 45-37 | -0.9 | -2.7 | Phoenix sits at 18th with a -0.895 neutral-field rating, down a steep 2.692 points week-over-week, and that decline looks justified given 2.68 points docked for absences like Mark Williams, Collin Gillespie, and Jordan Goodwin. At 45-37 but -1.33 against the market, this team has been slightly overvalued by bettors all season, so I'm selling Phoenix and treating their rating as a ceiling until the injury dock eases. |
| 19 | Δ ▼4 | 43-39 | -1.4 | -2.7 | Miami sits at 19th with a -1.429 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 1.5-point underdog to an average team, and that number has cratered 2.505 points in the past week. The -2.21 vs-market gap says the public has been overvaluing this team all season, so I'm selling Miami hard, especially with Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, and Norman Powell all inactive and a 2.71-point injury dock already baked in. This is a fade-or-pass roster right now, not a buy-low. |
| 20 | Δ – | 26-56 | -3.5 | -0.3 | New Orleans sits 20th with a neutral-field rating of -3.497, meaning they'd be roughly 3.5-point underdogs to an average team, and that number is trending the wrong way at -0.18 versus last week. The real story is the year-over-year jump from -10.714 to -3.497, which suggests the market may still be pricing them closer to last season's doormat version than this improved one — a modest buy-low angle, especially with the rating already absorbing a 0.33-point dock for Bryce McGowens being inactive. |
| 21 | Δ – | 37-45 | -5.5 | -2.5 | Golden State sits at 21st with a neutral-field rating of -5.486, a steep fall from last year's +4.897 and still sliding after a -0.765 weekly drop. With Draymond Green, Gui Santos, and Kristaps Porziņģis all inactive and 2.54 points already docked for those absences, this is a clear sell — the market's -4.16 versus the model's -5.486 suggests the public is still pricing these Warriors on reputation rather than current form. |
| 22 | Δ – | 26-56 | -8.4 | -2.0 | Dallas sits at 22nd with a -8.37 neutral-field rating, down another 0.779 points this week and well below last season's -5.356, so this is a clear sell — they're a bottom-tier team by the numbers. The 1.99-point injury dock for missing Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, and Marvin Bagley III is material, and with a 26-56 record against a slightly above-average schedule, their +0.08 vs-market mark suggests the number is priced about right rather than offering value. |
| 23 | Δ ▲1 | 19-63 | -9.1 | -2.3 | Indiana is a bottom-tier team by the numbers, ranked 23rd with a neutral-field rating of -9.126 points, meaning they'd be roughly a 9-point underdog to an average squad. The one silver lining is that they're trending up 1.298 points week-over-week and have beaten the market by 2.41 points, so they're quietly outperforming expectations despite a brutal 19-63 record. With Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard, and Kobe Brown all inactive, the 2.34-point injury dock is real, but this is a sell-high spot if the market keeps pricing them near their modest rating bump. |
| 24 | Δ ▼1 | 31-51 | -9.4 | -2.5 | Chicago sits at 24th with a -9.418 neutral-field rating, down another 0.895 this week, and that already bakes in a 2.45-point dock for missing Nick Richards, Anfernee Simons, and Isaac Okoro. At 31-51 with a -1.34 vs-market mark, this is a clear sell — the market has been slower than my number to price in how bad this roster is right now. Lay the points against Chicago; a -9.4 rating means even average opponents should be covering comfortably. |
| 25 | Δ – | 32-50 | -10.2 | -1.8 | Milwaukee sits at 25th with a -10.219 neutral-field rating, a massive fall from last year's +3.763, and the market is still pricing them 1.75 points better than this number suggests, so they're a clear sell until the roster gets healthier. With Bobby Portis, Kevin Porter Jr., and Pete Nance all inactive and 1.78 points already docked, this 32-50 team is worse than its reputation implies. |
| 26 | Δ – | 22-60 | -10.9 | -1.4 | Sacramento sits at 26th with a -10.9 neutral-court rating, meaning they'd be roughly 11-point underdogs to an average team, and their 22-60 record confirms this is a bottom-tier roster. The 2.42 vs-market number is the real signal here: the market has consistently priced them worse than this rating suggests, so there's a case they're slightly underrated by the number even if the team itself is a clear sell. With Keegan Murray and Zach LaVine both inactive, that 1.42 injury dock is doing real work, and I'd want no part of backing this group until the absences clear. |
| 27 | Δ – | 22-60 | -11.2 | -1.9 | Utah sits at 27th with a -11.23 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly 11-point underdogs to an average team, and that number already bakes in a 1.95-point dock for the absences of Filipowski, Collier, and Harkless. Their +2.02 vs-market mark is the one real signal here: the market has been pricing the Jazz slightly worse than this rating suggests, so they've quietly been a modest cover asset despite a 22-60 record. At this depth of the standings the rating is more trustworthy than the win-loss log, but the injury dock makes them a fragile hold rather than a buy. |
| 28 | Δ – | 25-57 | -13.2 | -3.1 | Memphis sits at 28th with a -13.17 neutral-field rating, down another 1.76 points this week, and that number already bakes in a 3.07-point dock for the absences of Bal, Spencer, and Coward. At 25-57 with a putrid -1.67 against the market, this is a clear sell — the rating says they're roughly 13 points worse than an average team, so any spread under about two touchdowns is a gift to the other side. |
| 29 | Δ ▲1 | 17-65 | -15.2 | -2.5 | Washington sits at 29th with a -15.216 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 15-point underdog to an average team, and their 17-65 record confirms this isn't a fluke. The 2.5-point injury dock for missing Coulibaly, Champagnie, and Johnson matters, but even a fully healthy roster wouldn't close a gap this wide. At 0.77 against the market, they've been a slight money-maker for backers despite the losses, so there's no real edge fading them at current numbers — this is a firm sell on the rating, not a buy. |
| 30 | Δ ▼1 | 20-62 | -15.9 | -3.4 | Brooklyn is the worst team in the league by a wide margin, and their -15.884 neutral rating means they'd be roughly 16-point underdogs to an average team on a neutral floor. The rating has cratered 3.748 points in the last week and sits well below last season's -9.731, so this is a clear sell — and with Nic Claxton, Nolan Traoré, and Drake Powell all inactive, that 3.35-point injury dock is very real. At 20-62 with a -1.56 vs-market mark, the market has mostly caught up, but this roster is still a fade-or-pass, not a buy. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →