Haliburton Says He's '100 Percent.' The Pacers' Entire Season Rests On Whether That's True

Tyrese Haliburton stood at Indiana Pacers media day on Monday and ended the speculation himself. "I am healthy," he said. "There will be no restrictions." He declared himself 100 percent, said he'd been keeping track of the doubters, and made clear — per ClutchPoints — that he intends to be the only source on his own injury status.

That is the loudest thing the Pacers have heard in 15 months, and it is the story of their week.

Recall the timeline. Haliburton tore his right Achilles during the 2025 NBA Finals, an injury that landed in the middle of a series Indiana was contesting deep into June. He then missed the entire 2025-26 season. The Pacers, without him, went 19-63. They scored 112.4 points per game and allowed 120.4, a point differential of minus-8.0. They bottomed out at 23rd in the power ratings with a -9.126 neutral-field mark — a full 12.8 points worse than the 3.696 they posted the season before.

So when Haliburton says "no restrictions," he is describing a swing larger than any trade, draft pick or coaching change Indiana could have made this summer.

What changes with him back

The roster around Haliburton has been reworked to fit a contender rather than a lottery team. The Pacers acquired Ivica Zubac from the Clippers at February's deadline, ending a season-long search for a starting center after Myles Turner's departure — general manager Chad Buchanan called Zubac the team's "number one clear target." They added Kelly Oubre Jr. in free agency, a move Oubre framed around Philadelphia playing slower than he preferred. And they brought James Johnson into training camp, a signing that signals a deliberate search for veteran voices.

That's a top-end group. The Pacers' starting five, on paper, has been ranked among the league's best. It's the rest of the rotation that keeps showing up as a question mark in the local coverage — wing fit, bench shot creation, and whether Jarace Walker can finally hold up a second unit.

The numbers behind the optimism

Haliburton's last full season (2024-25) was 18.6 points, 9.2 assists and 1.4 steals across 73 games on 47.3 percent shooting. His career splits show a player who is meaningfully better at home (17.9 points, 9.3 assists) and against the East (18.7 points, 9.0 assists, plus-1.69) than in the West — relevant for a team whose path runs through the conference.

The market has noticed. BetMGM lists Indiana's season win total at 44.5, with the over at -125 and the under at +105, and the Pacers' championship price at 4000 — implying roughly a 2.4 percent chance. That's a 25-win jump from last season's actual result, baked into a single number. At least one insider has gone further, projecting Indiana for as many as 50 wins.

The catch

Two things temper this. First, the Pacers are one Achilles from being right back where they were; the roster's depth was built on the assumption that their star stays upright, and that assumption is doing an enormous amount of work. Second, the extension question. Haliburton's eligibility is the hardest storyline in Indiana right now, and the GM has declined to comment on needed extensions as the clock keeps moving. A franchise that talks like a contender eventually has to pay like one.

Indiana opens the preseason at home against Minnesota on Oct. 7, with Atlanta, a trip to Oklahoma City and Milwaukee to follow. Haliburton will be on the floor for those games, unrestricted, for the first time since he went down.

Everything the Pacers do this season — the win total, the standings, the whole "gap year is over" premise — flows from that sentence.