The Nuggets Bet Their Season on the Minutes Nikola Jokic Doesn't Play

The most consequential Nuggets story of the past week didn't involve a highlight-reel pass. It was a report that Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are moving like their old selves, and that Denver's rebuilt second unit looks equipped to survive the minutes Nikola Jokic spends on the bench.

That is the entire season in one sentence.

The problem Denver never solved

Denver went 54-28 last season, scored 122.1 points per game, posted a plus-5.1 differential, and finished first in the league in offensive rating at 121.7. By almost any measure, it was an elite regular-season team.

It also lost in the first round to Minnesota, and the closer you look at the finish, the worse it reads. The Nuggets closed the year 1-4 in their last five games, with a net rating of minus-8.2 and an offense that plunged to 108.2 points per 100 possessions. The stars weren't the issue. Availability was.

Gordon appeared in just 36 games last season, averaging 16.2 points and 5.8 rebounds on 49.7% shooting while hitting 38.9% from three. Braun managed 44 games at 12.0 points and 4.8 rebounds on 51.9% from the floor. When those two are healthy, Denver's rotation has a spine. When they aren't, Jokic has to do everything, and the offense becomes a one-man operation that opposing defenses can load up against — the same "Caruso-style" fronting coverage that gave the Nuggets fits.

The offseason answer

The front office attacked the bench instead of the starting five. DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 18.4 points and 4.1 assists across 77 games last season, is being installed as the focal point of the second unit — a deliberate attempt to give the non-Jokic minutes a real offensive identity. Ryan Nembhard arrives from Dallas as a legitimate backup point guard option, addressing a hole that has existed since the 2023 title run.

Cameron Johnson, who shot 42.9% from three across 54 games, is already drawing praise for finding his groove as a Denver sharpshooter. Cam Whitmore has the inside track on the 15th roster spot, while Lonnie Walker IV's chances look slim. Peyton Watson was traded and Bruce Brown moved on, but the replacements bring a wider mix of skills than the players they replaced.

If even half of that holds, Denver finally has something it hasn't had in three years: a bench that doesn't hand back the lead every time the MVP sits down.

The noise around Jokic

Jokic was second in the MVP race last season behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and he's clearly not treating this as a victory lap — a three-quarter triple-double in preseason suggests another run at the award. He averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists a year ago. The market has him at +450 for MVP, an 18.2% implied probability, which is a fair reflection of both his brilliance and the competition.

Meanwhile, the discourse got loud. Kendrick Perkins questioned the roster and challenged Jamal Murray directly. An NBA legend argued the Jokic-Murray partnership should be broken up, framing Denver as wasting its star's prime. John Hollinger floated "justifiable paranoia" about Jokic's looming extension.

None of that changes what happens on the floor. Jokic is under contract, Murray averaged 25.4 points and 7.1 assists across 75 games while shooting 43.5% from deep, and the front office has said repeatedly it isn't splitting the duo.

What actually decides the season

Denver opens the regular season Oct. 22 at Oklahoma City — the team that finished first in the league in net rating last season. The Nuggets were seventh in that category at 4.5 and ended the year eighth in a points-based power rating, with an injury adjustment that flagged real thinness.

The market's read mirrors that: a win total of 49.5 and championship odds of +2500 price Denver as very good, not elite.

That gap between reputation and reality is the season's central question. It won't be answered by Jokic, who will be Jokic. It will be answered by whether Gordon and Braun stay on the floor, and whether DeRozan and the new bench can hold the line when the best player in the world takes a breather.