The Spurs' Preseason Asked a Question Last Year's 62 Wins Can't Answer
The Spurs' Preseason Asked a Question Last Year's 62 Wins Can't Answer
The Spurs spent last season as the NBA's best story, going from a rebuild to a 62-21 record and a surprise run to the Finals. Then the Knicks closed them out in San Antonio on June 13, and the conversation changed. As ESPN put it this week, San Antonio enters the season knowing the return trip won't be easy.
That's the week's real storyline in San Antonio — not any single preseason result, but the widening gap between what the Spurs proved last year and what the market now assumes they'll do again. BetMGM prices the Spurs at +260 to win the championship, dead even with Oklahoma City, and gives them a 59.5 win total with the over at -125. For scale: the defending champion Knicks sit at +1000 with a 52.5 win total.
That's a remarkable position for a team that lost the Finals four games to one and dropped six of eight meetings with New York last season. The underlying numbers back up the optimism — San Antonio's 62-21 record came with a +8.1 point differential, the third-best net rating in the league at 8.0, and a points-based power rating that actually slotted them No. 1 ahead of the Thunder and Knicks. But a 59.5 win total also means the books expect roughly two more wins than last year's team managed, from a roster that just watched New York solve it in June.
The preseason hasn't offered much reassurance. The Spurs fell 102-98 to Phoenix on Oct. 11, then were handled 119-109 in Utah on Oct. 12 with Victor Wembanyama and most of the rotation resting. The bright spot was rookie big man Tarris Reed Jr., who pulled down 17 rebounds and then admitted he eased up on the glass afterward — a reminder that the frontcourt depth behind Wembanyama is real but unproven when he's off the floor.
The more interesting subplot is the backcourt. San Antonio has three guards who all need the ball: De'Aaron Fox (18.5 points, 6.2 assists on 48.5% shooting last season), Stephon Castle (16.6 points, 7.4 assists) and Dylan Harper (11.9 points in just 22.7 minutes). Preseason gave a glimpse of a Harper-Castle pairing with Fox out, and it looked the part. But the Finals also handed the Spurs a blueprint to answer: New York loaded up on Wembanyama, and the counter starts with the guards punishing that attention. Fox shot 33.2% from three last season. Castle shot 33.2%. Harper was the best of the three at 35.7%. Wembanyama himself sits at 34.8%, which is fine for a 7-footer but not a pressure release.
That's the tension the preseason exposed. Wembanyama's individual profile is settled — 24.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.1 blocks, 51% shooting in 29.1 minutes across 65 games. What's unsettled is whether the pieces around him can convert the extra attention he draws into efficient offense, and whether a three-guard rotation that was a luxury in a surprise season becomes a puzzle in a season with a 59.5-win expectation attached to it.
There's a version of this season where San Antonio is exactly what the price suggests: the Thunder's only real peer in the West, and the team best positioned to avenge June. There's another version where last year's run was the outlier — a great team catching a great wave — and a deeper, more scouted Spurs squad has to grind for every win it used to get for free.
The schedule offers an early read. San Antonio hosts Oklahoma City on Oct. 20, with Houston and Dallas following close behind. If the guard trio's shooting and the bench's non-Wembanyama minutes hold up in that stretch, the co-favorite status will look earned. If they don't, the Spurs will learn what the Knicks already know: the second trip is always harder than the first.