Haliburton's Back, but the Pacers' Preseason Exposed a Problem He Can't Fix

Tyrese Haliburton ended a 472-day absence on Oct. 7, playing 16 minutes and scoring seven points against Minnesota at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa — the building where he became an Iowa State legend. It was the kind of full-circle script the Pacers needed after a gap year that bottomed out at 19-63.

That's the story of the week in Indianapolis, and it's a genuinely good one. Haliburton said in late September he'd be "ready to go" with no restrictions, and by mid-October he'd already turned in a performance against Oklahoma City — a 114-112 preseason overtime loss — that had local coverage declaring his regained excellence more important than the result. For a team that finished 2025-26 scoring 112.4 points per game while allowing 120.4, a functional franchise point guard changes the math on both ends.

The trouble is what the rest of the preseason showed.

The Starters Looked Like a Playoff Team. The Bench Didn't.

Indiana closed the exhibition schedule with a loss to Milwaukee in which the first unit shone and the reserves were, in the words of one write-up, the roster's "Achilles' heel." That's a problem that compounds. Haliburton's return raises the ceiling of the starting five; it does nothing for a second unit that just lost rotation-level familiarity to roster cuts — moves that were described locally as costing the team "vibes more than talent," which is a polite way of saying the back of the roster got thinner and less cohesive at the same time.

There's real depth on this team, but it's concentrated. Pascal Siakam averaged 23.95 points and 6.6 rebounds on 48.4% shooting last season while functioning as the leading scorer and second option simultaneously. Andrew Nembhard put up 16.9 points and 7.7 assists. Bennedict Mathurin added 17.6 a night in 54 games. Ivica Zubac — acquired from the Clippers and, by several accounts, the most pleasant surprise of the preseason — chipped in 14.1 points and 10.6 rebounds on 59.8% shooting in his 48 games last year, and gives Indiana something it has rarely had: a genuine post-scoring option.

That's a credible top six. The question is what happens in minutes 25 through 48.

Where the Season Actually Turns

The schedule-makers did Indiana no favors on timing: opening night is Oct. 21 in New Orleans, and local analysis has circled the first 20 games as the stretch that will define the year. That framing is fair. A team reintegrating a star after a 16-month layoff while simultaneously leaning on a new starting center needs early wins to bank, because the Eastern Conference is crowded enough that a slow start could bury them.

The external projections are all over the map, which tells you how uncertain this team is. Some voices floated 50 wins; others have the Pacers among the talented East teams that could miss the playoffs entirely. The market sits near 44.5 wins with a championship price around +3500 — roughly a 2.8% implied chance — which is a fair reflection of a roster with a high floor and a few unresolved variables.

One number worth watching: last season's rating profile had Indiana at minus-9.1 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, 23rd in the league, with a soft .385 strength of schedule. That rating was built entirely without Haliburton.

The star is back. The starting lineup looks the part. Whether the bench holds up is the difference between a vindication season and another long winter in Indianapolis.