The Clippers Open the Post-Kawhi Era With No Picks, No Stars and a 28.5-Win Line

The LA Clippers will open the 2026-27 season at home against the Sacramento Kings on Oct. 21, and the organization has planned a jersey swap for fans on opening night. It is a small, telling gesture: come to Intuit Dome, trade in the old name and number, and start fresh. For a franchise that spent the last twelve months detonating its own roster, a wardrobe change is the easiest part of the rebuild.

The harder parts are already on the books.

How the Clippers got here

The NBA's investigation into salary cap circumvention surrounding Kawhi Leonard concluded in early September with the harshest punishment in league history: a $30 million fine, five forfeited first-round picks, and a one-year suspension for owner Steve Ballmer, plus suspensions without pay for members of the front office. Leonard was traded to Toronto — a deal completed only after the investigation closed — and he surrendered more than $7 million in the move before signing a two-year, $115 million extension with the Raptors. The Clippers, meanwhile, got nothing resembling a reset button.

James Harden and Ivica Zubac were traded last season. Paul George walked in 2024. Leonard is gone now. Three years ago that was a contender; today it is a roster built around Darius Garland, Bennedict Mathurin and a handful of veterans on short runway.

The roster that remains

Garland is the engine, and the numbers say he can handle a heavier load: 18.8 points and 6.7 assists per game last season while shooting 45.9 percent from the floor and 39.6 percent from three. The caveat is availability — he played just 45 games. Mathurin, acquired as part of the churn, averaged 17.6 points and 5.4 rebounds but shot 42.9 percent overall and 31.5 percent from deep, efficiency that needs to climb if he is going to be a primary rather than a volume scorer. Max Strus arrived via trade, John Collins gives them a 13.6-point frontcourt option, and Brook Lopez, Bradley Beal and Bogdan Bogdanovic provide minutes and professionalism. The development story — Jordan Miller, Cam Christie (reportedly returning), rookie Keaton Wagler — matters more than it would on a normal team, because with five first-rounders stripped, internal growth is the only pipeline left.

Garland has been publicly preaching patience through the preseason. He is right, but patience is a hard sell in a building that just hosted a jersey exchange.

The numbers are already sliding

Last season's 42-40 record with a plus-1.1 point differential looks respectable until you look at the trend line. The Clippers were 23-19 at home and 19-22 on the road, and their late-season form was grim: a recent weighted net rating of roughly minus-5, a defensive rating north of 120 over the final stretch, and a 5-5 last ten. Our power rating placed them 13th at plus-1.86 — down nearly a full point week over week and a steep fall from last season's 8.40. That is a team in decline, not one reloading.

The market agrees on the direction, if not the magnitude. BetMGM's season win total sits at 28.5, with the under priced slightly shorter than the over. That's a 14-win drop from last year's finish, and it's a fair midpoint given the losses.

The schedule won't help

Opening against a 22-60 Kings team that allowed 121 points per game last season is a soft landing. It doesn't last. The Clippers follow with a road game at the Lakers on Oct. 23, a trip to Oklahoma City on Oct. 25, a home date with the Lakers on Oct. 28, then Minnesota and Golden State on the road. Five of their first seven are against teams with playoff expectations. A slow start is not a prediction so much as a scheduling fact.

What a successful season actually looks like

Not wins. The Clippers have no first-round pick to protect and no realistic path to the play-in without a healthy Garland and a leap from Mathurin. The measuring sticks are simpler: does Garland play 65-plus games, does Mathurin's efficiency catch up to his volume, and does anyone from the young group establish themselves as a rotation piece rather than a placeholder?

The jersey swap is a nice touch. It doesn't change the fact that the Clippers are entering this season without the picks, the stars, or the margin for error that defined the last era — and with the entire Western Conference waiting to see how long the rebuild takes.