Rockets Beat Hawks 120-110: Houston -5.5 and the Under Both Cash

The Houston Rockets improved to 4-0 with a 120-110 home win over the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night, completing a two-game sweep of the series after Saturday's 121-114 victory in Atlanta. The Rockets pulled away in the fourth quarter, turning a competitive game into a double-digit final margin.

Our premium pick was Houston -5.5, and it cashed. The Rockets won by 10, clearing the number with room to spare. That's the margin we needed, even if the game played tighter than the final score for long stretches. The model projected a 114-113 Houston win — a 1.1-point margin against a 5.5-point line — and the actual result landed closer to the market than to our number. The gap we flagged was real, but it didn't matter on the scoreboard.

The Under 230.5 also hit. The teams combined for 230 points, a half-point under the line. Our model leaned Under, and the pace and efficiency from both sides kept the total just beneath the number.

The Houston moneyline (-198) was the third clean hit. The Rockets won outright, delivering the roughly 66% win probability the market implied.

Atlanta's +15.7 point differential entering the game suggested value on the road side, and the Hawks kept it within single digits for much of the night before fading late. Houston's 121.0 PPG offense was efficient enough to survive an average defensive night, while Atlanta's 124.7 PPG attack couldn't sustain its early pace in the fourth quarter.

The takeaway: a thin projected margin didn't stop Houston from covering, and home-court advantage held up. When our model's edge against the spread is this small, the venue and recent form deserve real weight — and here, they pointed the right way.