Curry's 44 Lift Warriors Past Wolves 119-114

Stephen Curry scored 44 points and Golden State left Target Center with a 119-114 win over Minnesota on Wednesday night. The Warriors have now won two straight after an 0-3 start, and the game played out as a shootout rather than the defensive grind the pre-game numbers suggested.

How our premium pick fared

We sold the Under 228.5 as the favorite play, and it missed. The two teams combined for 233 points, five over the number. The reasoning was sound on paper — Minnesota had been holding opponents to 105.0 points per game and Golden State's 1-3 ATS mark pointed to an overpriced name — but Curry's 44-point night and 16 free throws kept the scoreboard moving past the total.

Our moneyline call on Minnesota also lost. The Timberwolves entered 3-1 with a +17.0 point differential as a 3.5-point home favorite, and the market's reluctance to push the number past a possession proved correct. Golden State, 1-3 with a -3.5 differential coming in, got the win outright.

What it means going forward

The takeaway is that early-season point differentials can overstate a team's defensive stability. Minnesota's 105.0 opponent average looked like a bankable Under anchor, but a single elite scoring performance erased it. When a total sits in the mid-220s, the downside of a hot shooting night outweighs the cushion. We'll weigh recent defensive form more heavily against star-level shot creation before backing another Under in this range.