Rockets 132, Bucks 100: Houston Stays Perfect, Our Pick and Model Diverge

The Houston Rockets improved to 5-0 with a 132-100 blowout win over the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on Wednesday night. Houston never trailed, turning a close game into a rout with a dominant second half. Fred VanVleet fueled the run with 15 straight points, and the Rockets' offense was unstoppable all night.

Our premium pick on Houston, laying 8.5 points on the road at -300 on the moneyline, cashed comfortably. The Rockets won by 32, covering the spread with room to spare. The total, however, finished at 232, sailing over the 227.5 line as Houston alone scored 132. Our model had projected a 114-111 Houston win, a 3.3-point margin that looked nothing like the actual game. The moneyline and spread were right; the projected margin and total were not.

The takeaway is clear: undefeated teams with strong differentials can be undervalued even when the market has already adjusted. Houston's +9.8 differential through four games was a signal, not a fluke. Our model was too quick to expect a close game on the road. In future picks, we'll weigh recent performance more heavily and be cautious about assuming regression, especially against a struggling defense like Milwaukee's. The Bucks fell to 1-4 and have now allowed 120+ points in three of their last four games. Until they show defensive improvement, backing Milwaukee's opponents may be a profitable angle.