Mavericks Hand Rockets First Loss in 116-111 Thriller

The Houston Rockets' perfect start is over. Dallas handed Houston its first loss of the season Friday night at American Airlines Center, winning 116-111 in a matchup that was tighter than the final margin suggests — and it was a cathartic one for a Mavericks team that came in 3-2 and playing with house money.

Kyrie Irving turned in a season-high performance and drew MVP chants from the home crowd, while Cooper Flagg was huge on both ends. Houston came in scoring 123.0 per night with a +14.2 point differential, but Dallas slowed the game down and made the undefeated favorite pay for a fat number.

How our premium pick did: We took the Mavericks at +6.5 on the spread and at +180 on the moneyline, and we called for the outright upset. Both cashed. Dallas won outright at +180, and the five-point win comfortably covered the +6.5 cushion. Our total lean was Under 226.5; the teams combined for 227, so that one missed by a single point. The model's projected 111.9-110.7 home/away scoreline had the right winner and the right neighborhood on the Dallas side, though the actual total ran slightly hotter than expected.

The takeaway: This was the exact spot we flagged — the market chasing a 5-0 record and inflating the number on a road favorite that hadn't earned it. The outright call was right, and the points came free with it. Undefeated starts are loud, but they're not matchup proof, and the number will eventually catch up to that.