Celtics Survive Bucks 109-102, Fail to Cover as Big Favorites

The Boston Celtics improved to 6-2 with a 109-102 win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night at TD Garden, but the final score tells a story of survival rather than dominance. Boston led late but couldn't pull away, and Milwaukee's late push kept the game within single digits.

Our premium pick on the Celtics -11.5 never had a chance to cover, as Boston won by just seven points. The total landed at 211, well under the 224.5 number, as both teams fell short of their season scoring averages. The model projected a 118.9-105.2 Boston win, but the actual score fell short of that projection on both sides.

The takeaway is clear: double-digit spreads are risky even for contending teams, especially when the underdog has nothing to lose. Boston's 3-3 ATS record over its last six games was a warning sign, and it proved accurate again. Milwaukee, despite its 1-7 record, covered as a big underdog and showed fight. For future picks, we'll be more cautious with large spreads and give more weight to recent ATS trends rather than just win-loss records.