Week 2 NBA Power Rankings: Houston Holds No. 1 as Memphis and Golden State Surge
The Week That Was
A week into the 2026 season and the board already has a clear theme: the market is lagging the model in Houston, and it's overcorrecting in Oklahoma City. The Rockets sit at No. 1 with an 11.89 neutral-field rating, up a massive 2.26 points in a week. At 7-1 with a plus-5.14 edge versus the market, this team is being undervalued by the books. The 11.9 rating means they'd be laying roughly 12 points to an average team on a neutral field, yet the market keeps pricing them closer to the pack. That gap is the story of the week.
Detroit is No. 2 at 10.02, but that number slipped 1.91 points and was built against a soft schedule (-2.06), so the 6-1 record is doing more work than the underlying rating. The market is already 3.78 points ahead of this rating, meaning you're paying a premium to back them. San Antonio holds No. 3 at 9.52, essentially flat week-over-week (-0.01) and only slightly below last season's 10.32, so this is a stable, legitimately elite number rather than a hot streak. The 5-2 record came against a soft slate (-0.30 SOS), and with no key players unavailable, the rating is clean.
The Top Five
1. Houston Rockets (11.89, +2.26 wk, 7-1, SOS 1.29) — The Rockets are the real deal. A plus-5.14 market edge says the books are still catching up to a team that grades out as roughly 12 points better than average on a neutral floor. The schedule has been no joke either (1.29 SOS), so this isn't a soft-launch mirage.
2. Detroit Pistons (10.02, -1.91 wk, 6-1, SOS -2.06) — Detroit's 6-1 start is nice, but the rating is sliding and the schedule has been soft. The market is already 3.78 points ahead of this number, so you're paying a premium to back them. This is a sell-high spot until the schedule stiffens.
3. San Antonio Spurs (9.52, -0.01 wk, 5-2, SOS -0.30) — The Spurs are the stabilizer of the top five. Essentially flat week-over-week and only slightly below last season's mark, this is a stable, legitimately elite rating. The 5-2 record came against a soft slate, but with no key players unavailable, the number is a clean read.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (8.74, -0.31 wk, 5-3, SOS 0.08) — Minnesota rates 8.74 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for fourth, and that number already reflects a full-strength roster with no key players docked for injury. The rating is down 0.31 from last week and sits a massive 6.84 points above the market, meaning the books are pricing them well below this number.
5. Portland Trail Blazers (6.28, +0.98 wk, 5-1, SOS -2.13) — Portland's rating has jumped nearly a full point in a week, but that 5-1 record is inflated by the softest schedule in the dataset (-2.13). The market already respects them at +1.54 versus the spread, so the value has been priced in; this is a sell-high spot once the schedule stiffens.
Risers and Fallers
The biggest rating movers this week are Memphis (+9.26) and Golden State (+6.64), both surging on the strength of 6-1 and 5-3 starts, respectively. Memphis sits at No. 12 with a +2.52 rating, but the -4.30 strength of schedule says the résumé is softer than the record looks. The market is still catching up, with a vs-market gap of 5.03 points. Golden State's surge is backed by a 5.86 vs-market edge and a healthy 1.89 strength of schedule, so this isn't a soft-schedule mirage. The market is clearly lagging this move, making GSW a buy at current numbers.
On the flip side, OKC (-6.09) and Boston (-4.04) took the biggest rating hits. OKC sits at No. 8 with a 4.85 rating, down steeply from last week and well below their 8.06 prior-season mark, so the market's -2.76 vs. their number says bettors are still pricing them closer to last year's form than this week's. Boston is No. 9 at 4.37, down 4.04 points, and the market is already ahead of it at -3.72 versus the model. The soft -2.12 strength of schedule props up a 5-2 record that the underlying rating doesn't fully back, so this is a sell-high spot.
How the Board Sets Up
Keep an eye on Dallas (No. 19, -0.55, +4.16 wk) — the 4.16-point jump came against the 2.44 schedule strength, so this climb is earned rather than schedule-inflated. The market still hasn't caught up: at 6.33 points better than the number, Dallas is a clear buy. New Orleans (No. 20, -1.31, +3.07 wk) is another buy-low: the +3.07 weekly jump suggests this number is still catching up to a healthier, better version of the team, and the 5.21 vs-market edge is the loudest signal here. Finally, Denver (No. 18, 1.31, +0.37 wk) is a buy-low on a team whose rating hasn't caught up to its 3-3 record; the market is pricing them 3.8 points worse than this rating implies.
Earl's Sign-Off
The board is telling you two things: Houston is the best team in the league and the market hasn't fully priced it, and the middle of the pack is a minefield of schedule-inflated records. Trust the rating, fade the soft schedules, and buy the teams the books are still sleeping on. That's how you stay ahead.