3.2
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
Chicago sits at 15th with a -0.588 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast after a -0.814 drop from last week, and the 3.2-point injury dock for a questionable Caleb Williams plus Kyle Monangai already being out tells you the market hasn't fully caught up to how thin this roster is. The +2.23 vs-market mark means Chicago has been beating the number, but with a -0.041 strength of schedule and a modest 0.0219 EPA differential, that 3-2 record is propped up by close wins rather than real dominance. This is a sell-high spot: the rating says they're barely above average, so any spread pricing them as a legit contender is a fade.
Unavailable this week(-3.2 pts of rating)
- Caleb Williams · QB · Questionable-2.1
- Kyle Monangai · RB · Out-1.0
- Noah Sewell · LB · Questionable-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2022 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | #21 | 1-0 | -2.4 | -0.4 | +5.3 | — |
| 2022 | 2 | #18 | 1-1 | -2.9 | — | +8.8 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | #21 | 2-1 | -4.6 | -1.7 | +4.7 | -1.7 |
| 2022 | 4 | #27 | 2-2 | -7.0 | -2.1 | +1.7 | -2.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | #21 | 2-3 | -4.7 | -0.7 | +3.8 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 6 | #24 | 2-4 | -5.9 | -0.1 | +3.7 | -1.2 |
| 2022 | 7 | #14 | 3-4 | -1.3 | — | +9.7 | +4.6 |
| 2022 | 8 | #13 | 3-5 | -2.3 | — | +8.3 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 9 | #15 | 3-6 | -2.4 | — | +7.5 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 10 | #15 | 3-7 | -2.8 | -0.8 | +5.5 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 11 | #18 | 3-8 | -3.0 | -0.9 | +5.5 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 12 | #28 | 3-9 | -7.4 | -3.7 | +1.3 | -4.4 |
| 2022 | 13 | #28 | 3-10 | -6.6 | -2.4 | +2.3 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 14 | #22 | 3-10 | -4.5 | — | +4.2 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 15 | #22 | 3-11 | -5.4 | -1.6 | +4.5 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 16 | #26 | 3-12 | -8.5 | -2.7 | +0.9 | -3.0 |
| 2022 | 17 | #28 | 3-13 | -9.7 | -1.0 | -0.4 | -1.3 |
| 2022 | 18 | #32 | 3-14 | -17.7 | -7.6 | -7.5 | -8.0 |