8.3
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
#28
rank
-10.1
rating (points, neutral field)
8-9
record (2022)
-3.7
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Tampa Bay sits at 28th with a neutral-field rating of -10.1, meaning they'd be roughly a 10-point underdog to an average team, and their -3.67 vs-market gap says the books have been pricing them even worse than that. The 2.66-point rating jump is real progress, but with Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield, and Benjamin Morrison all out and 8.3 points already docked for those absences, this is a roster held together with tape at 1-4. I'd treat any short line as a sell until the injury situation clears, because a -0.02 EPA differential and 20 points per game over the last five won't cover spreads on their own.
Unavailable this week(-8.3 pts of rating)
- Baker Mayfield · QB · Out-7.0
- Antoine Winfield · S · Out-0.7
- Benjamin Morrison · CB · Out-0.5
- SirVocea Dennis · LB · Out-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2022 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | #3 | 1-0 | +7.6 | -1.9 | +6.8 | — |
| 2022 | 2 | #3 | 2-0 | +8.0 | -3.5 | +4.6 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 3 | #5 | 2-1 | +5.2 | -3.5 | +2.5 | -2.8 |
| 2022 | 4 | #7 | 2-2 | +3.0 | -3.2 | -0.5 | -2.2 |
| 2022 | 5 | #11 | 3-2 | -0.5 | -5.2 | -3.8 | -3.5 |
| 2022 | 6 | #11 | 3-3 | +0.2 | -3.0 | -5.5 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 7 | #22 | 3-4 | -5.3 | -4.2 | -13.6 | -5.5 |
| 2022 | 8 | #28 | 3-5 | -6.6 | -5.7 | -12.8 | -1.3 |
| 2022 | 9 | #28 | 4-5 | -6.2 | -4.6 | -12.7 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 10 | #16 | 5-5 | -2.8 | -1.6 | -7.3 | +3.5 |
| 2022 | 11 | #13 | 5-5 | -0.7 | — | -5.2 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 12 | #23 | 5-6 | -5.2 | -3.7 | -9.4 | -4.5 |
| 2022 | 13 | #21 | 6-6 | -4.5 | -2.8 | -9.2 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 14 | #27 | 6-7 | -6.3 | -2.3 | -9.9 | -1.8 |
| 2022 | 15 | #29 | 6-8 | -8.5 | -4.1 | -10.3 | -2.2 |
| 2022 | 16 | #25 | 7-8 | -7.1 | -4.0 | -9.0 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 17 | #22 | 8-8 | -4.0 | -2.3 | -5.7 | +3.1 |
| 2022 | 18 | #25 | 8-9 | -7.0 | -4.0 | -7.2 | -2.9 |