3.2
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
Chicago sits at 15th with a -0.588 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast after a -0.814 drop from last week, and the 3.2-point injury dock for a questionable Caleb Williams plus Kyle Monangai already being out tells you the market hasn't fully caught up to how thin this roster is. The +2.23 vs-market mark means Chicago has been beating the number, but with a -0.041 strength of schedule and a modest 0.0219 EPA differential, that 3-2 record is propped up by close wins rather than real dominance. This is a sell-high spot: the rating says they're barely above average, so any spread pricing them as a legit contender is a fade.
Unavailable this week(-3.2 pts of rating)
- Caleb Williams · QB · Questionable-2.1
- Kyle Monangai · RB · Out-1.0
- Noah Sewell · LB · Questionable-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2026 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | #10 | 1-0 | +4.2 | -0.3 | -5.1 | — |
| 2026 | 2 | #7 | 1-1 | +5.7 | — | -0.8 | +1.5 |
| 2026 | 3 | #11 | 2-1 | +0.9 | -7.5 | -0.5 | -4.8 |
| 2026 | 4 | #13 | 3-1 | +0.2 | -7.8 | +0.6 | -0.7 |
| 2026 | 5 | #15 | 3-2 | -0.6 | -3.2 | +2.2 | -0.8 |