NFL Power Rankings — Week 4, 2026
As of 2026-10-06
latest is Week 5, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ – | 3-1 | +13.3 | -0.3 | Jacksonville sits at No. 1 with a 13.338 neutral-field rating, and the profile backs it up: 26.0 points scored vs. 13.25 allowed over the last five, a plus-12.75 point differential, and a 0.244 EPA edge per play. The rating dipped 1.269 this week and the market has them at 13.28, essentially in lockstep with my number, so there's no line value either way right now. The only soft spot is a thin corner room with Montaric Brown and Christian Braswell both questionable, which is worth a small monitor but not enough to move off this rating. |
| 2 | Δ – | 4-0 | +8.8 | -2.5 | San Francisco grades as the No. 2 team in the league at 8.761 points better than average on a neutral field, and the rating is climbing fast (up 0.796 this week) on the back of a 30.5-point scoring average and a plus-14.5 point differential over the last five. The market is still catching up — a 3.92-point gap between this rating and the typical spread says the 49ers are the buy side, even with 2.5 points already docked for the absences of Bosa and Mykel Williams. Note the soft -0.986 strength of schedule inflating that 4-0 start, so I'd want the number before laying a full touchdown. |
| 3 | Δ ▲1 | 2-2 | +5.7 | — | The Rams grade out as the No. 3 team in the league at 5.72 points better than average on a neutral field, but that rating has slid 1.135 points in a week and sits 5.44 below their prior-season mark of 11.158, so the market's -0.86 vs-market discount looks justified rather than a buy-low. Their last five games tell the story: 21.25 points scored against 20.75 allowed, a +0.5 point differential, and a modest 0.1677 EPA per play despite facing only the 24th-toughest schedule at 2.74. At 2-2 with no key players docked, this is a sell-high candidate — a 5.72 neutral rating implies roughly a 5.5-point favorite against an average team, and they have not played to that level lately. |
| 4 | Δ ▲4 | 4-0 | +5.0 | — | Kansas City sits at No. 4 with a 5.023 neutral-field rating, and that number jumped 1.279 points this week on the back of a 10.25 average point differential and a plus-0.2305 EPA per play over the last five. The market is pricing them 0.79 points below my rating, so there's modest value on the Chiefs, though the -0.962 strength of schedule is a real caveat that says this 4-0 start came against softer competition. With zero injury points docked and no key players unavailable, this is a healthy buy-high candidate as long as you're not laying more than about a touchdown. |
| 5 | Δ ▼2 | 3-1 | +4.3 | -2.4 | Seattle sits at a 4.285 neutral-field rating, fifth in the league, but that number just fell 3.298 points week-over-week, and the market is pricing them 3.25 points worse than my rating — that gap screams sell-high on a team whose 3-1 record was built against a schedule 3.507 points below average. The offense is humming at 26.25 points per game over the last five with a plus-0.162 EPA differential, but losing both Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price at running back, plus a 2.4-point injury dock already baked in, leaves this backfield thin enough that I'd fade Seattle laying anything close to a full field goal. |
| 6 | Δ ▲1 | 2-2 | +3.8 | -0.2 | Denver sits at a 3.831 neutral-field rating, sixth in the league, but that number is trending the wrong way after a 0.51-point drop and it's propped up by an 8.911 strength of schedule. The last five games tell a different story: 18.5 points scored against 23.5 allowed, a -0.1027 EPA diff per play, and a -5.0 point differential, so this rating looks inflated relative to current form. At 3.4 vs the market, Denver is being priced about a half-point richer than my number, making them a mild sell until the offense shows life, especially with Dondrea Tillman out. |
| 7 | Δ ▼2 | 4-0 | +2.7 | -1.7 | Minnesota sits 7th with a +2.683 neutral-field rating, but that number just fell 3.317 points week-over-week and carries a 1.7-point dock for Justin Jefferson being out and Aaron Jones limited. The 4-0 record is doing heavy lifting here, because a -2.99 strength of schedule and a modest 0.0734 EPA differential per play say this offense is winning on defense (12.75 points allowed last five) more than dominance. At +2.27 versus the market, the Vikings are a sell-high candidate — lay the points only if you believe that defense keeps bailing out a Jefferson-less passing game. |
| 8 | Δ ▼2 | 2-2 | +2.3 | -2.1 | New England sits at 2.324 points better than an average team on a neutral field, but that rating just fell 2.054 points week-over-week and the profile is ugly: -0.0607 EPA per play, -3.0 point differential, and just 16.25 points per game over the last five. The market is pricing them 3.44 points better than my number, so this is a clear sell — and with Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore both out, the 2.1-point injury dock is already baked in but the defense could still get worse. |
| 9 | Δ – | 3-1 | +2.3 | -2.0 | Buffalo sits at a 2.303 neutral-field rating, ninth in the league, but that's a steep 0.504-point drop from last week and a massive fall from a 4.503 prior-season mark, with a soft -1.014 schedule doing them no favors. The offense is humming at 31.75 points per game over the last five, yet a 26.75 defensive allowance and a thin 0.0856 EPA differential per play expose real cracks, and the 2.0-point injury dock for Terrel Bernard and a questionable Christian Benford only deepens the concern. At -6.39 against the market, Buffalo is a clear sell — the public is pricing them on reputation, not on this regressed, banged-up version. |
| 10 | Δ ▲2 | 2-2 | +1.6 | -1.4 | Cincinnati sits at 10th with a +1.585 neutral-field rating, a massive 1.241-point jump from last week that screams buy-low window closing fast, especially with a 1.717 strength of schedule inflating the resume. The market has them at just -0.16 versus the number, so there's no real edge baked in yet, but a 24.25 points-per-game offense over the last five with a positive 0.0544 EPA differential per play suggests this rating still has room to climb. The 1.4-point injury dock for Dexter Lawrence, Bobby Hill, and Kyle Dugger is already priced in, so don't overreact to those absences. |
| 11 | Δ ▲6 | 2-2 | +0.8 | -0.9 | Carolina sits 11th with a +0.832 neutral-field rating, a massive 3.501-point jump in a single week, and the market is still catching up — that 5.33-point gap versus the number says the books are undervaluing them. The offense is cooking at 30.25 points per game over the last five with a positive 0.0856 EPA differential per play, but allowing 27.25 points on the other side keeps this from being a clean buy. Xavier Legette is out and Jalen Coker is questionable, thinning a receiver room that already has a 0.9-point injury dock baked into the rating, so treat Carolina as a slight over bet rather than a team to back blindly. |
| 12 | Δ ▼2 | 3-1 | +0.6 | -0.9 | Baltimore sits at just 0.638 points above average on a neutral field, a massive 1.699-point drop from last week, and that rating already bakes in a 0.9-point dock for injuries to Zay Flowers, Chris Moore, and Collins Hendrickson. The 29.0 points per game over the last five masks a defense allowing 24.0, and with a -3.838 strength of schedule and a 3-1 record, this team is a clear sell — the market is pricing them 7.85 points better than my number, so I'm fading Baltimore against any spread near a touchdown. |
| 13 | Δ ▼2 | 3-1 | +0.2 | -7.8 | Chicago sits at 13th with a +0.226 neutral-field rating, but that number is already docked 7.8 points for injuries and just fell 0.672 week-over-week, so the market's modest +0.6 vs. spread edge looks stale. The 28.0 points per game and +0.1492 EPA differential over the last five are real, but they came against a soft -1.143 schedule, and Caleb Williams being out at quarterback makes this a sell until the rating stabilizes. |
| 14 | Δ ▲4 | 2-2 | -0.4 | -0.8 | Indianapolis sits at 14th with a -0.41 neutral-field rating, but the 2.667-point jump from last week is the real story and suggests the market is still catching up. The profile is mediocre underneath — 25.5 points scored vs 26.0 allowed over the last five, -0.0863 EPA per play, and a -0.5 point differential — yet they're beating the number by 2.15 points versus the market, which makes them a modest buy while the rating climbs. Keenan Allen and Ashton Dulin both questionable is material given the 0.8-point injury dock already baked in, so treat this rating as a floor if either suits up. |
| 15 | Δ – | 3-1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | Las Vegas sits at a -0.679 neutral-field rating, essentially a pick'em team, but that's a massive 1.836-point jump from last week and a huge upgrade from last year's -10.591 prior rating. The offense is rolling at 28.75 points per game over the last five with a positive 0.064 EPA differential per play, yet the market still rates them 8.4 points below their rating, making them a clear buy-low candidate. Brock Bowers and Cody White being limited in practice is a minor concern, but the 0.3-point injury dock is negligible against this kind of value. |
| 16 | Δ ▲9 | 3-1 | -1.5 | — | The Giants sit at 3-1 with a -1.478 neutral-field rating, meaning they're still slightly below average despite the record, but that +5.089 weekly rating jump is the real story and signals the market is catching up fast. Their -2.469 strength of schedule inflates the win total, so I'd sell high on any inflated public perception. With a 7.5 vs-market edge and no key injuries docked, this is a buy-low window before the number fully corrects. |
| 17 | Δ ▲7 | 2-2 | -1.8 | -0.5 | Atlanta sits at 17th with a -1.788 neutral-field rating, and that +4.557 weekly jump is the real story — this team is trending up fast off a 24.0 points-per-game offensive stretch and a positive 0.0274 EPA differential over its last five. The market is badly undervaluing them: a 6.37 gap between their rating and the number they've been getting is a screaming buy signal, even with Divine Deablo, Nnamaka Ebukam, and Yasir Abdullah all questionable and a soft -3.166 strength of schedule inflating that offensive output. |
| 18 | Δ ▲3 | 2-2 | -1.8 | -0.5 | Dallas sits at 18th with a -1.802 neutral-field rating, a modest +1.747 jump from last week, but that number is propped up against a weak -2.085 strength of schedule and a brutal -6.157 prior-season rating. The offense is scoring 30.5 over the last five while the defense surrenders 28.0, and a -0.0134 EPA diff per play with just a +2.5 point differential says this 2-2 start is fool's gold. At -1.8 they're a slight home underdog or small road favorite depending on matchup, and with Overshown and Durant both out, I'm selling Dallas at any price that treats them as an average team. |
| 19 | Δ ▲1 | 3-1 | -2.1 | -0.1 | Cleveland sits at 19th with a -2.055 neutral-field rating, meaning they grade as roughly two points worse than an average team, yet they're 3-1 and have surged 1.49 points week-over-week. The offense is middling at 20.25 points per game while the defense allows 23.75, and their -0.035 EPA differential confirms this is a thin, low-margin team rather than a legit contender. At 10.86 points better than market expectations, they're a clear sell-high candidate — the 3-1 record is inflating their perceived value well beyond what the underlying numbers support. |
| 20 | Δ ▼7 | 2-2 | -2.5 | -0.4 | Detroit sits at 20th with a -2.47 neutral-field rating, and that number is sliding hard after a -1.59 weekly drop, so this is a clear sell. The offense is scoring 29.75 a game over the last five, but allowing 31.75 with a -0.0077 EPA differential and a -2.0 point differential means those points are empty calories. The market is pricing them 5.66 points better than my number, which is a massive overlay against Detroit, and with Dennis Reed questionable in the secondary, I'm laying the points or fading them in any spot where the line sits near a field goal. |
| 21 | Δ ▼5 | 2-2 | -2.7 | -1.7 | Pittsburgh sits at 21st with a -2.72 neutral-field rating, meaning they're nearly a field goal worse than an average team, and that number already bakes in a 1.7-point dock for injuries. The offense is managing just 19.25 points per game over its last five while allowing 21.75, with a -0.108 EPA differential per play that confirms this is a below-average unit on both sides. With Joey Porter and Rico Dowdle out and Jalen Ramsey questionable, this is a sell — the market at 0.91 suggests Pittsburgh is still getting slightly more respect than the underlying numbers justify. |
| 22 | Δ ▼3 | 0-4 | -3.1 | -2.0 | Houston sits at 22nd with a -3.081 neutral-field rating, and that already bakes in a 2.0-point dock for missing Al-Shaair and Stewart, so the 0-4 record isn't purely bad luck. The last five games tell the story: 21.0 points scored against 27.25 allowed, a -6.25 point differential, and a -0.0535 EPA per play, which is a bottom-tier profile. At -4.82 against the market, the number is already shaded against them, so this is a sell on any Houston rebound narrative until the defense gets healthier. |
| 23 | Δ – | 1-3 | -6.4 | -0.6 | Arizona sits at 23rd with a -6.405 neutral-field rating, down 1.863 points from last week, and that slide is justified by a defense allowing 29.25 points per game over the last five while the offense manages just 21.75. The -0.1399 EPA differential per play and -7.5 point differential confirm this is a bottom-tier team, and with Dadrion Taylor-Demerson out and Josh Sweat questionable, the rating dock of 0.6 points may not fully capture the defensive drop-off. At 1-3 with a +0.43 vs-market mark, the market has been slightly slower to downgrade Arizona than my numbers have, making this a sell-high candidate if you can find a favorable number. |
| 24 | Δ ▲2 | 2-2 | -7.3 | -4.4 | Philadelphia sits at 24th with a -7.253 neutral-field rating, and that number already bakes in a 4.4-point dock for the absences of Marquise Brown, Dallas Goedert, and Zack Baun, so the on-field product is even thinner than the raw rating suggests. The last five games tell the story: 18.75 points scored against 23.25 allowed, a -0.1568 EPA differential per play, and a -4.5 point differential. At -9.66 versus the market, the Eagles are a clear sell — the market is pricing them nearly two and a half points better than this rating justifies, and with a -0.511 weekly decline, that gap should keep widening. |
| 25 | Δ ▲2 | 0-4 | -7.7 | -2.4 | At 0-4 with a -7.728 neutral-field rating, the Chargers are getting outscored by 9.75 points per game over their last five and allowing 26.5 points a game, so this is a genuinely bad team, not a victim of bad luck. The market's -6.76 versus my number suggests the public is still pricing them closer to last year's 0.162 rating than to what's actually on the field, which makes them a sell until the offense shows a pulse. Missing Dalvin Tomlinson and possibly Ladd McConkey only deepens the hole, so I'm laying the points against them rather than hunting for a bounce-back. |
| 26 | Δ ▲2 | 2-2 | -8.3 | -0.9 | Green Bay sits at 26th with a -8.33 neutral-field rating, and the last five games explain why: 18.25 points scored against 26.25 allowed, a -0.136 EPA per play, and a -8.0 point differential. That rating is 10.39 points worse than the market's number, so the public is pricing this team well above what the underlying numbers support — this is a sell, not a buy. The defensive line is thin with Warren Brinson out and Karl Brooks limited, which matters for a unit already allowing 26.25 points per game. |
| 27 | Δ ▲3 | 0-4 | -8.7 | -0.8 | Miami sits at 27th with a -8.689 neutral-field rating, and the last five games paint an ugly picture: 11.5 points scored versus 25.25 allowed, a -0.2316 EPA differential per play, and a -13.75 point margin. The +2.528 weekly rating bump is noise against an 0-4 record, so this is a clear sell — and with a 7.39 vs-market gap, the number is still catching up to how bad this team actually is. Missing Caleb Douglas and Robert Beal only deepens the hole. |
| 28 | Δ ▲1 | 0-4 | -9.1 | -0.6 | Tennessee sits at 28th with a neutral-field rating of -9.091, meaning they'd be roughly 9-point underdogs to an average team, and their 0-4 record is no fluke given a -7.0 point differential and -0.115 EPA per play over the last five. The offense is the real anchor at just 13.75 points per game, and with Tyjae Spears and Kevin Winston both questionable, there's no reason to expect a spark. The one silver lining is a +2.04 vs-market mark, suggesting the market has already priced in how bad this team is, so the value sits with the number rather than against Tennessee. |
| 29 | Δ ▼15 | 1-3 | -9.4 | -3.5 | New Orleans sits at 29th with a neutral-field rating of -9.449, and that number cratered 7.661 points in a single week — this is a clear sell, not a buy-low. The defense has surrendered 32.0 points per game over the last five while the offense manages just 26.25, and with Kaden Elliss and Carl Granderson both out, the -3.5 injury dock looks justified. At -3.23 versus the market, the public is still pricing this team better than the numbers say, so keep fading New Orleans until the rating stabilizes. |
| 30 | Δ ▲1 | 1-3 | -11.3 | -3.5 | The Jets grade out at -11.335 points on a neutral field, 30th in the league, and the market has them at -3.99 versus my number, meaning the public is still pricing this roster several points better than it actually is. The offense has been functional at 19.0 points per game over the last five with a positive 0.0364 EPA per play, but that's offset by a defense allowing 21.0 and a 3.5-point injury dock with Breece Hall out and Adonai Mitchell also unavailable. Until the market stops overvaluing this team, the Jets remain a sell and a strong candidate to fade as a favorite or take as a live underdog only when the number gets inflated by 4-plus points. |
| 31 | Δ ▼9 | 0-4 | -12.8 | -8.1 | Tampa Bay sits at 31st with a -12.77 neutral-field rating, and that number cratered 8.24 points in a single week, so this is a team in freefall rather than a stable bottom-feeder. The market has already priced them 9.49 points worse than my number, which tells you the books are overcorrecting on a roster missing Baker Mayfield and two corners, and with a -5.0 point differential over the last five and a -0.077 EPA per play, I'm not rushing to buy the dip either. At this rating they're a sell until Mayfield returns, but the gap versus the market is wide enough that I'd only lay the inflated number if the spot is right. |
| 32 | Δ – | 1-3 | -16.2 | -8.9 | Washington is the worst team in the league by a mile, with a -16.22 neutral-field rating that's fallen another 2.81 points this week and sits a full 5.17 points below where the market prices them. The offense is managing just 22.0 points per game over the last five while the defense bleeds 30.5, and losing Jayden Daniels at quarterback plus Rachaad White with McLaurin questionable only deepens an 8.9-point injury dock. At this rating they should be catching roughly 16 points against an average team, so any spread in the single digits is a gift to whoever's laying the points against them. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →