NFL Power Rankings — Week 3, 2026
As of 2026-09-29
latest is Week 4, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ ▲3 | 2-1 | +14.6 | -0.3 | Jacksonville sits at No. 1 with a 14.607 neutral-field rating and a massive 6.301 jump from last week, fueled by a plus-15.3 point differential and 27.3 points per game over their last five while allowing just 12.0. That rating towers over their 13.57 market number, so the books are still pricing them a shade below their true form, making them a clear buy. The only real drag is the 0.3-point dock for DaVon Hamilton's limited practice and Albert Regis being doubtful, but that's minor against a profile this dominant. |
| 2 | Δ ▼1 | 3-0 | +8.0 | -2.4 | San Francisco sits at No. 2 with a 7.965 neutral-field rating, but that number dropped 3.725 points from last week, a red flag even at 3-0. The offense is rolling at 32.7 points per game over the last five with a plus-16.0 point differential, yet the market is pricing them 2.26 points better than my number, so I'm selling high here, especially with Nick Bosa out and Mike Evans questionable. |
| 3 | Δ ▲2 | 2-1 | +7.6 | -1.8 | Seattle grades out as the No. 3 team in the league at 7.583 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 0.836 points this week despite a strength of schedule sitting at -1.091, so this is a legit top-tier number rather than a soft-schedule mirage. The last five games back it up: 25.0 points scored against just 16.7 allowed with a +0.239 EPA per play and +8.3 point differential. The market is sleeping on them at -0.21 versus my number, and with only 1.8 points docked for injuries, I'm buying Seattle as an underrated team that should be laying more than the typical spread suggests. |
| 4 | Δ ▼1 | 1-2 | +6.9 | — | The Rams still grade out as the No. 4 team in the league at 6.855 points better than average on a neutral field, but that rating has cratered 3.144 points in a week, and a 1-2 record with a minus-0.67 point differential over the last five tells you the on-field product isn't matching the number. The market is pricing them 1.6 points better than my rating, so I'm selling Los Angeles at that inflated number until the offense (20.3 points per game last five) shows it can carry its weight. |
| 5 | Δ ▲3 | 3-0 | +6.0 | — | Minnesota grades out as the 5th-best team in the league at 6.0 points better than average on a neutral field, and they're backing it up with a plus-10.0 point differential over the last five while allowing just 13.7 points per game. The one caveat is a strength of schedule sitting at minus-1.401, so that 3-0 record and 23.7 points per game have come against softer competition than the rating implies. At 6.29 versus the market, the numbers say Minnesota is a slight buy, but the soft slate means I'd want the rating to keep climbing before laying a full touchdown with them. |
| 6 | Δ ▼4 | 1-2 | +4.4 | -0.7 | New England sits at 4.378 points better than an average team on a neutral field, but that rating just cratered 6.152 points in a week, and the profile backs the drop: 12.0 points per game on offense with a -0.0973 EPA per play over the last five. The market is pricing them at 4.18 versus my 4.378, so there's no real edge there, and with Dre'Mont Jones and Brenden Schooler out, this is a sell — a 1-2 team whose prior-season rating of 8.977 is doing far too much work in the number. |
| 7 | Δ ▲4 | 2-1 | +4.3 | -0.7 | Denver sits at a 4.34 neutral-field rating, seventh in the league, and that number jumped 3.40 points in a single week — the market is catching up fast, with a vs_market gap of 4.94 suggesting the public still hasn't fully priced this team in. The concern is real, though: a -0.127 EPA differential and -3.3 point differential over the last five, plus a brutal 8.77 strength of schedule, means this rating is built more on schedule tax than dominance. Buy low on Denver as a small favorite — the rating says they're nearly a field goal better than average, and the Jonah Coleman absence is already baked into the 0.7-point injury dock. |
| 8 | Δ ▲1 | 3-0 | +3.7 | -0.8 | Kansas City sits at a 3.744 neutral-field rating, eighth in the league, and that number jumped 1.627 points this week on the back of a 29.3 points-per-game offense and a plus-12.7 point differential over the last five. The market is still pricing them 2.42 points below my rating, so I'm buying KC as an underrated play, especially since that rating already eats a 0.8-point dock for injuries to Conner, Sneed, and Jones. The -2.018 strength of schedule is a real caveat, but with a 3-0 record and a 0.278 EPA edge per play, this team is live to outperform a typical spread. |
| 9 | Δ ▼3 | 3-0 | +2.8 | -2.3 | Buffalo sits 9th with a 2.807 neutral-field rating, but that number is down a massive 3.186 from last week, and the market still prices them 5.57 points better than my model does — that gap screams sell-high on a 3-0 team. The offense is humming at 33.67 points per game over the last five, but allowing 26.0 with just a 0.1305 EPA edge per play tells me these wins are thinner than the record suggests, and docking 2.3 points for DJ Moore, Terrel Bernard, and Tanaeri Sanders only deepens the concern. |
| 10 | Δ – | 2-1 | +2.3 | -0.6 | Baltimore sits at a 2.34 neutral-field rating, up 0.26 this week, but that's still well below last year's 3.50 mark — the market has priced them at -5.18 versus my number, making them a clear sell at current spreads. The offense is humming at 30.7 points per game over the last five, yet a defense allowing 26.0 and a thin 0.11 EPA differential per play says this is a mediocre team with a bloated public reputation, especially with Zay Flowers questionable and a soft -1.74 schedule inflating the record. |
| 11 | Δ ▼4 | 2-1 | +0.9 | -7.5 | Chicago sits 11th with a 0.898 neutral-field rating, but that number is already docked 7.5 points for injuries, including Caleb Williams at quarterback, and the rating just fell 4.761 points week-over-week. The last-five profile is genuinely strong at 29.7 points scored, 17.7 allowed, and plus-12.0 point differential, so this is a roster playing better than its rating suggests. At 0.48 points worse than market, Chicago is a modest buy on the number, not a sell. |
| 12 | Δ ▲2 | 2-1 | +0.3 | -1.4 | Cincinnati sits at No. 12 with a +0.244 neutral-field rating, and that number is climbing fast — up 0.499 from last week on the back of a +0.124 EPA per play and 26.7 points per game over the last five. The market is still pricing them a full 1.87 points worse than my number, which makes them a clear buy, especially since the rating already eats a 1.5-point dock for missing Bobby Hill, Dexter Lawrence, and Andrei Iosivas. That soft -1.533 strength of schedule is doing real work here, so I'd grab Cincinnati at any spread shorter than a field goal. |
| 13 | Δ ▼1 | 2-1 | -0.9 | -0.2 | Detroit sits at 13th with a -0.88 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast after a -1.13 drop and reflects a soft -1.999 schedule. The last five games tell the real story: 31 points scored but 31.7 allowed, a -0.67 point differential, and a near-zero EPA diff of 0.0136 — this is a .500 team masquerading as better, and at -2.63 versus the market they're a clear sell. |
| 14 | Δ ▲2 | 1-2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | New Orleans sits at 14th with a neutral-field rating of -1.788, meaning they grade out roughly 1.8 points below an average team, and that number is sliding after a -0.685 drop this week. The profile is ugly: 27.0 points scored but 27.7 allowed over the last five, a -0.052 EPA differential per play, and a -0.67 point differential despite a soft 0.381 schedule. The market is pricing them 4.94 points better than my number, so I'm selling New Orleans — this is a team to fade, not back, especially with Nathan Shepherd limited and Martin Emerson questionable. |
| 15 | Δ ▲9 | 3-0 | -2.5 | -1.4 | Las Vegas is 3-0 and the underlying numbers are catching up fast, with a +2.974 rating jump this week and a +11.3 point differential over the last five behind 29.3 points per game. The -2.515 neutral-field rating still says this is a slightly below-average team, but a -5.647 strength of schedule and a +6.0 vs-market gap say the books have been slower to move than the results justify. Buy the Raiders while the market still prices them near a field-goal underdog, though Brock Bowers being questionable is the one thing that could cool the offense. |
| 16 | Δ ▲2 | 2-1 | -2.5 | -1.7 | Pittsburgh sits at 16th with a -2.543 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly a field-goal underdog to an average team, and that number already bakes in a 1.7-point dock for injuries. The offense is the problem: 17.7 points per game over the last five with a -0.138 EPA differential per play, and losing Rico Dowdle plus a questionable Jaylen Warren guts the backfield. At 2-1 with a +1.67 vs-market mark, this is a sell-high spot, especially with Joey Porter also questionable in the secondary. |
| 17 | Δ ▼2 | 1-2 | -2.7 | -2.5 | Carolina sits at 17th with a -2.669 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a field goal underdog to an average team, and that number dropped 1.824 points this week. The offense has been legitimately hot at 29.7 points per game over the last five, but a defense allowing 27.7 and 2.5 points docked for injuries to Devin Lloyd, Nicholas Scott, and Jalen Coker keeps this from being a real buy. At -0.72 versus the market, they're a slight sell — the rating says fade them before the public catches up to a scoring profile that's outrunning the underlying numbers. |
| 18 | Δ ▲1 | 1-2 | -3.1 | -1.7 | Indianapolis sits at 18th with a -3.08 neutral-field rating, and that number is sliding after a -0.49 weekly drop, so this is a team trending the wrong way. The last five games tell the story: 24.0 points scored against 30.3 allowed, a -6.3 point differential, and a -0.17 EPA per play, all while facing the second-toughest schedule in the league at 2.42. With DeForest Buckner and Alec Pierce out and Charvarius Ward questionable, the 1.7-point injury dock is real, and the market's 3.19 vs-market gap says the public is still overvaluing this roster — I'm selling Indy and happy to take the points against them. |
| 19 | Δ ▼6 | 0-3 | -3.1 | -2.9 | Houston has cratered to a -3.123 neutral-field rating, down 2.921 points in a week, and that number already bakes in a 2.9-point dock for missing Nico Collins, Jadeveon Clowney, and Dalton Schultz. At 0-3 with a -7.0 point differential and -0.1023 EPA per play over the last five, this is a clear sell — the market's -3.87 vs. their rating suggests books are still pricing them closer to their 6.427 prior-season rating than to what they've actually shown. |
| 20 | Δ ▲7 | 2-1 | -3.5 | -0.4 | Cleveland sits at 20th with a -3.545 neutral-field rating, but that's a massive 3.8-point jump from last week and a huge upgrade from last year's -5.522, so this is a clear buy-low on a team the market hasn't caught up to. The vs_market gap of 9.19 screams value, especially since they're 2-1 against a brutal 3.735 schedule while their last-five scoring margin (-5.67) undersells them. Watch the Delpit and Campbell questionable tags, but at this rating they're live underdogs most weeks. |
| 21 | Δ – | 1-2 | -3.5 | -1.3 | Dallas sits at 21st with a -3.549 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 3.5-point underdog to an average team, and their -1.913 strength of schedule suggests this 1-2 start hasn't come against stiff competition. The offense is scoring 29.3 points per game over the last five, but allowing 27.3 with a near-zero EPA differential (0.0131) tells me this is a mediocre team propped up by volume, and the market's -2.24 vs. my number means there's real value fading Dallas when the spread gets inflated by public perception. With Hooker, Durant, and Overshown all out, the defense is even thinner than the raw numbers show, so I'm selling the Cowboys at anything close to a pick'em. |
| 22 | Δ ▲1 | 0-3 | -4.5 | -1.0 | Tampa Bay sits at 22nd with a -4.533 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly 4.5 points worse than an average team, and their 0-3 record with a -5.67 point differential over the last five reflects that. The offense is managing just 20.7 points per game while the defense surrenders 26.3, and a -0.0823 EPA differential per play confirms this is a below-average unit on both sides. At -2.73 versus the market, the books are pricing them slightly better than my numbers suggest, so I'm selling Tampa Bay and looking to fade them when the line doesn't account for how bad this team actually is. |
| 23 | Δ ▲2 | 1-2 | -4.5 | -1.0 | Arizona sits at 23rd with a -4.542 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly 4.5-point underdogs to an average team, yet they're 5.58 points better than the market prices them — that gap makes them a clear buy-low. The rating jumped 1.375 points off last week despite a -6.0 point differential over their last five and a defense allowing 27.0 points per game, so the market is still catching up to a team that's quietly outperforming its 1-2 record. With Dadrion Taylor-Demerson out and Roy Lopez and Malachi Melton questionable, the 1.0-point injury dock already baked in is fair, but the schedule (4.704) has been brutal — expect value on Arizona as a road dog while books lag this adjustment. |
| 24 | Δ ▲8 | 1-2 | -6.3 | -0.7 | Atlanta's rating sits at minus-6.345 points on a neutral field, ranked 24th, yet the market has them 2.79 points better than that number implies, so the public is pricing this team above its true power rating. The last-five profile is ugly — 17.0 points scored, 22.67 allowed, and a minus-0.126 EPA per play — and with Nnamaka Ebukam out and Aundell Terrell not practicing, this defense is thin, making Atlanta a clear sell at any spread shorter than about a touchdown. |
| 25 | Δ ▼5 | 2-1 | -6.6 | -2.7 | The Giants sit at 25th with a -6.567 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be about a touchdown underdog to an average team, and that number just dropped 3.256 points in a week. Their last five games tell the story: 15.3 points scored against 18.3 allowed with a -0.174 EPA per play, and a 2.7-point injury dock with Jaxson Dart out of practice plus Brian Burns and Deonte Banks questionable makes this a clear sell. At 0.46 against the market, they're still priced slightly better than they deserve, so I'm fading any line that asks me to trust this offense. |
| 26 | Δ ▼9 | 2-1 | -6.7 | -3.3 | Philadelphia sits at 26th with a neutral-field rating of -6.74 points, and that number is cratering, down 4.86 points from last week after a -4.67 point differential over the last five games. The offense is managing just 18.3 points per game with a -0.097 EPA per play, and losing Marquise Brown and Dallas Goedert has already cost this rating 3.3 points, so this is a clear sell — the -14.67 vs. market gap says the public is still pricing these guys on name value, not on what's actually on the field. |
| 27 | Δ ▼1 | 0-3 | -7.8 | -2.2 | At 0-3 with a -7.8 neutral-field rating (27th in the league), the Chargers are getting outscored by 10.7 points per game over their last five and allowing 25.3, while their offense manages just 14.7 — that's a bottom-tier team by the numbers. Their rating already sits 8.4 points below the market, so the public is still pricing this roster on reputation rather than results, making them a clear sell until the defense stops bleeding points. Losing Dalvin Tomlinson up front for a run defense that's already struggling only deepens the hole, and with a -0.21 EPA differential per play, I'm laying the points against them, not with them. |
| 28 | Δ ▼6 | 1-2 | -10.1 | -1.0 | Green Bay sits at 28th with a -10.067 neutral-field rating, down a steep 4.883 points from last week, and their last five games tell the story: 18.7 points scored against 30.3 allowed with a -0.2013 EPA differential per play. That -11.25 vs. market gap says the number is still catching up to how bad this team actually is, so sell the Packers and lay the points. Missing Jayden Reed and Warren Brinson only deepens the hole, and Javon Hargrave being questionable doesn't help a defense already bleeding 30+ a game. |
| 29 | Δ ▼1 | 0-3 | -10.8 | -0.6 | Tennessee sits at 29th with a neutral-field rating of -10.8, and that number is trending the wrong way after a 1.74-point drop this week. The offense is scoring just 12.3 points per game over its last five while the defense allows 19.7, producing a -7.3 point differential and a -0.078 EPA per play that confirms this is a bottom-tier unit. With Tony Pollard limited and Tyjae Spears questionable, the backfield is thin, and the market rating them 2.33 points worse than my number makes Tennessee a sell until the offense shows a pulse. |
| 30 | Δ ▼1 | 0-3 | -11.2 | -1.5 | Miami is a bottom-tier team by the numbers, ranked 30th with a neutral-field rating of -11.217, and they're getting worse, down another 0.635 points this week. The offense is scoring just 12.0 points per game over the last five while the defense surrenders 28.67, producing a -16.67 point differential and a -0.2808 EPA per play, so this is a clear sell until the roster gets healthier. The one silver lining for bettors is that at 5.08 points better than the market implies, the Dolphins are actually being priced a bit too pessimistically, making them a sneaky buy against the number if you can stomach the absences of Caleb Douglas and Robert Beal. |
| 31 | Δ – | 1-2 | -11.4 | -1.9 | The Jets grade out as the 31st-ranked team at -11.4 points versus an average neutral-field opponent, and their -6.6 strength of schedule only softens the blow of a 1-2 start. That number already bakes in a 1.9-point dock for absences like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Francisco Mauigoa, yet their -3.1 vs-market gap says books are still shading them better than this rating implies. With a +0.104 EPA differential and +1.0 point differential over the last five, I'm buying the Jets as a live underdog whenever the spread climbs past that -11 range. |
| 32 | Δ ▼2 | 1-2 | -13.4 | -8.6 | Washington is the worst team in the league by a mile at -13.4 points on a neutral field, and that number already bakes in an 8.6-point injury dock for losing Jayden Daniels, Chig Okonkwo, and Nicolas Cross. The rating is trending the wrong way too, down 2.2 points from last week, and at -4.04 versus the market the books are still pricing this team several points better than my numbers say they deserve. Sell Washington hard and lay the points against them until Daniels is back. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →