NFL Power Rankings — Week 2, 2026
As of 2026-09-22
latest is Week 3, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ ▲2 | 2-0 | +11.7 | -0.4 | San Francisco sits at No. 1 with an 11.69 neutral-field rating, up nearly three points week-over-week, and they're outpacing the market by 2.68 — that's a strong buy signal, since a rating this high means they should be laying more points than a typical spread implies. The last five games back it up: 31.0 points scored, just 10.0 allowed, and a plus-21.0 point differential with a 0.3916 EPA edge per play. The only real drag is a minor 0.4-point injury dock for Kaelon Black and Eddy Pineiro, both questionable, which isn't enough to move the needle on this rating. |
| 2 | Δ ▲3 | 1-1 | +10.5 | -0.4 | New England grades out as the No. 2 team in the league at 10.53 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 2.948 points off last week despite a modest 1-1 record. The profile is defense-driven: 8.0 points allowed per game over the last five with a plus-7.0 point differential, while the offense manages just 15.0 points per game. The market sits at 9.24 versus my 10.53, so there's a buy-low window of roughly a point and a quarter before you even factor in Carlton Davis being out and Dre'Mont Jones questionable. |
| 3 | Δ ▲1 | 1-1 | +10.0 | — | Los Angeles sits third in my ratings at 9.999 points better than average on a neutral field, up 1.53 from last week, and with no injury dock and a clean bill of health there's nothing suppressing that number. But the profile is a bit hollow: 17.5 points per game over the last five with just a plus-1.0 point differential, and that 6.13-point gap between my rating and the market says the public is pricing this team well above what the offense has actually produced. I'm selling at this number — lay the points against them and take the inflated rating as free value on the other side. |
| 4 | Δ ▼2 | 1-1 | +8.3 | -0.2 | Jacksonville still grades as the No. 4 team in the league at 8.306 points better than average on a neutral field, but that rating fell 3.297 points in a week, and their -2.45 strength of schedule suggests the mark was built against soft competition. The market is pricing them 5.13 points better than my number, so this is a clear sell-high spot, especially with Brian Thomas limited in practice. |
| 5 | Δ ▼4 | 2-0 | +6.7 | -7.7 | Seattle's 6.747 neutral-field rating is inflated relative to its on-field profile, having cratered 5.284 points in a week while the defense's 8.5 points allowed over the last five games is doing unsustainable heavy lifting alongside a modest 22.0 offensive output. The market's 0.78-point edge toward Seattle is a sell signal, especially with 7.7 points already docked for Sam Darnold and Tyler Okada being out. Lay the points against the Seahawks until this rating stabilizes. |
| 6 | Δ ▲1 | 2-0 | +6.0 | -0.5 | Buffalo sits at a 5.993 neutral-field rating, up 0.93 from last week, and their offense is absolutely rolling at 38.5 points per game over the last five, though the defense bleeding 31.0 in that same stretch is a real concern. The market is only pricing them 0.21 points above my number, so there's no edge either way at the current spread. With Terrel Bernard limited and Cole Bishop questionable, this is a hold, not a buy, until the defense tightens up. |
| 7 | Δ ▲3 | 1-1 | +5.7 | — | Chicago sits 7th with a 5.659 neutral-field rating, up 1.498 from last week, and that +8.0 point differential over the last five games is backed by a legit 31.0 points per game on offense. The market is still pricing the Bears about 0.84 points below my number, so this is a buy — lay the field goal with Chicago before the books catch up to a rating that's already survived a 2.904 strength of schedule. |
| 8 | Δ – | 2-0 | +5.4 | -1.0 | Minnesota grades 8th in my ratings at +5.35 points better than an average team on a neutral field, and that number is climbing fast, up 0.72 this week on the back of a plus-11.5 point differential and just 12.5 points allowed per game over the last five. At 2-0 with a +0.109 EPA differential per play, this is a legit buy, and the 7.2 gap between my rating and the market says books are still pricing them a touchdown short of where they belong. The 1.0-point dock for Kyler Murray and Jauan Jennings is already baked in, so even shorthanded this rating holds up. |
| 9 | Δ ▲6 | 2-0 | +2.1 | -1.3 | Kansas City sits at a 2.117 neutral-field rating, ninth in the league, and that number is climbing fast with a +2.582 weekly jump on the back of a 12.0 point differential and a 32.0 points-per-game average over the last five. The defense is the soft spot, allowing 20.0 per game, and the 1.3-point injury dock plus the absences of Chamarri Conner and the questionable Christopher Jones and Mansoor Delane are real enough to matter. At 0.97 versus the market, the rating says this team is priced almost exactly right, so I'm not chasing the Chiefs at a discount that isn't there. |
| 10 | Δ ▼1 | 1-1 | +2.1 | -1.7 | Baltimore sits at a 2.08 neutral-field rating, which already bakes in a 1.7-point dock for missing Zay Flowers, Justin Madubuike, and Teddye Buchanan, so the on-field product is better than that number suggests. The problem is the -2.162 weekly rating drop and a -6.06 gap versus the market, meaning the number has fallen hard while the bookmakers still price Baltimore closer to its 3.502 prior-season rating. That makes the Ravens a buy-low if Flowers suits up, but a stay-away until the injury picture clears, because this offense at 29.0 points per game last five is carrying a defense allowing 23.5. |
| 11 | Δ ▲3 | 1-1 | +0.9 | -1.0 | Denver sits 11th with a neutral-field rating of 0.944, but that number is propped up by a 1.281 jump this week and a 3.037 prior-season rating, while the recent on-field profile is ugly: 15.0 points per game, 22.0 allowed, and a -0.1764 EPA differential over the last five. The market has already caught up at 1.01 versus the number, so there's no edge buying this rating, and with Marvin Mims out and RJ Harvey questionable, the 1.0-point injury dock may not fully capture how thin this offense is. Sell Denver at this price until the scoring and efficiency numbers stop screaming that the rating is running ahead of the tape. |
| 12 | Δ ▼1 | 1-1 | +0.3 | -0.4 | Detroit sits at 12th with a +0.25 neutral-field rating, but that number is bleeding after a 1.417-point drop in a single week, and the profile underneath is ugly: 31.0 points scored against 35.5 allowed over the last five, an EPA differential of -0.0091, and a -4.5 point margin. The 3.095 strength of schedule is doing real work propping this rating up, and the market still prices them 1.05 points better than my number, so I'm selling Detroit at anything near the current spread. Dennis Reed being questionable at corner only adds to the case against laying points with a defense giving up 35.5 a game. |
| 13 | Δ ▼7 | 0-2 | -0.2 | -2.9 | Houston has cratered to a -0.202 neutral-field rating, down 5.748 points in a week, and the last five games tell the story: 18.5 points scored against 28.0 allowed, a -0.1647 EPA differential per play, and a -9.5 point margin. With Nico Collins, Jadeveon Clowney, and Dalton Schultz all unavailable and 2.9 points already docked for those absences, this rating is no fluke. The market is still pricing Houston 4.6 points better than my number, so I'm selling the Texans hard and fading them against any spread that hasn't caught up. |
| 14 | Δ ▲3 | 2-0 | -0.3 | -3.2 | Cincinnati sits at 14th with a -0.255 neutral-field rating, and that 1.665 jump from last week is the real story — this team is trending hard in the right direction despite a soft -0.911 strength of schedule. The last-five profile backs it up: 26.5 points scored, just 16.5 allowed, a +10.0 point differential, and a +0.1273 EPA per play, all while the rating already eats a 3.2-point dock for Joe Burrow's questionable tag and the defensive line absences. At just +0.07 versus the market, the books are barely shading them, which makes this a quiet buy — if Burrow suits up, that rating is underselling a 2-0 team. |
| 15 | Δ ▲8 | 1-1 | -0.8 | -0.3 | Carolina's rating jumped 4.28 points this week to -0.845, and with a neutral-field rating that close to zero, this team is basically average right now. The last five games tell a wild story: 35.5 points per game on offense but 31.0 allowed, and an EPA differential of just 0.191 per play, so the 4.5 point differential is barely real. They're 1.12 points better than the market implies, which makes them a slight buy, but Bobby Brown being out on the defensive line is a real concern for a unit already giving up 31 a game. |
| 16 | Δ ▲5 | 1-1 | -1.1 | -0.8 | New Orleans sits at -1.103 on a neutral field, meaning they're roughly a point worse than an average team, but the market is pricing them a massive 8.87 points off that number, which screams buy-low on the Saints. The rating jumped 2.745 points versus last week on the back of a 27.0 points-per-game offensive surge over the last five, though a -0.0335 EPA differential and 24.0 points allowed per game show this isn't a clean profile. With Chris Olave and Chase Young both questionable, that 0.8-point injury dock could grow, so grab the value now before the market corrects. |
| 17 | Δ ▼4 | 2-0 | -1.9 | -0.5 | Philadelphia sits at 17th with a -1.879 neutral-field rating, and that number is sliding fast after a -2.696 weekly drop, so this 2-0 start is fool's gold built on a -9.131 strength of schedule. The offense is putting up just 24.0 points per game over the last five with a -0.0133 EPA differential per play, meaning they're barely outscoring opponents despite the wins. At -12.15 versus the market, the books are begging you to sell high on the Eagles before the schedule stiffens. |
| 18 | Δ ▼6 | 1-1 | -2.5 | -1.1 | Pittsburgh sits at 18th with a -2.506 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly 2.5 points worse than an average team, and that number just cratered 3.405 points in a week. The offense is the problem: 11.5 points per game over the last five with a -0.1475 EPA differential and a -5.0 point differential, all while facing a tough 0.867 strength of schedule. With Joey Porter out and Michael Pittman questionable, this is a clear sell — the market's -1.67 vs. my number suggests Pittsburgh is still being priced closer to average than their recent form warrants. |
| 19 | Δ ▼3 | 0-2 | -2.6 | -0.8 | Indianapolis sits at 19th with a -2.59 neutral-field rating, but the market is pricing them 7.05 points better than that number, so the books clearly aren't buying this rating. The case for the market: the Colts have scored 26.5 points per game over their last five while allowing 37.0, a -10.5 point differential and -0.248 EPA per play, and their rating fell another 1.3 points this week. With DeForest Buckner, Charvarius Ward, and Ashton Dulin all unavailable, that 7-point gap between rating and market looks like a trap — I'd sell Indianapolis until the defensive numbers stabilize. |
| 20 | Δ ▼2 | 1-1 | -3.3 | -0.3 | The Giants sit 20th with a -3.311 neutral-field rating, and that number is trending the wrong way after a 1.373-point drop from last week. Their last five games tell the story: 17.0 points scored against 24.0 allowed, a -0.2735 EPA differential per play, and a -7.0 point differential, all while facing the second-toughest slate in the league at 2.963. With both starting corners banged up, I'm selling New York — the market's 6.38-point gap versus my rating says the public is still pricing this team well above what the tape shows. |
| 21 | Δ ▲6 | 1-1 | -4.6 | -0.5 | Dallas sits at 21st with a -4.572 neutral-field rating, and that number is climbing fast, up 2.7 points week-over-week, so this is a clear buy-low window before the market fully catches up. The offense has posted 28.5 points per game over the last five, but a -0.0019 EPA differential and 24.0 points allowed show that scoring is masking real inefficiency, and the -9.45 vs-market gap says the public is still pricing Dallas far above what the numbers justify. DeMarvion Overshown being out costs them 0.5 points in the rating, a minor but real hit to a defense that can't afford it. |
| 22 | Δ ▼2 | 1-1 | -5.2 | -0.9 | Green Bay sits at 22nd with a -5.184 neutral-field rating, down 2.053 points from last week, and that decline is justified by a defense allowing 28.0 points per game over the last five with a -0.1456 EPA differential per play. The market is pricing the Packers 11.08 points worse than this rating suggests, which makes them a clear sell until the defensive front gets healthier, especially with Javon Hargrave doubtful and Warren Brinson already out. |
| 23 | Δ ▼1 | 0-2 | -5.3 | -0.8 | Tampa Bay sits at 23rd with a -5.32 neutral-field rating, and that number is trending the wrong way after a -0.89 drop this week. The defense is hemorrhaging 28 points per game over the last five while the offense manages just 23, producing a -5.0 point differential and a -0.127 EPA per play that confirms this is a genuinely below-average team. The market is pricing them even worse than my rating suggests, with a -7.77 vs-market gap, so there's no value buying this sinking ship right now. |
| 24 | Δ ▲5 | 2-0 | -5.5 | -1.1 | Las Vegas sits at 24th with a -5.489 neutral-field rating, but that number is climbing fast after a 3.716-point jump this week, and the last-five profile is legit: 26.5 points scored, just 13.5 allowed, and a +0.1274 EPA differential per play. The market is already catching on at 0.74 points better than my number, so the value window is closing, but with a soft -7.876 schedule and a prior-season rating of -10.591, this is a clear buy-low that's still being priced closer to last year's team than this year's. The docked 1.1 injury points for Brock Bowers (doubtful) and Darien Porter (out) is real but modest, so I'm not fading this rating. |
| 25 | Δ ▼1 | 1-1 | -5.9 | -1.2 | Arizona sits at 25th with a -5.917 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 6-point underdog to an average team, and that number is sliding (-0.176 this week) after a -6.0 point differential over their last five. The offense is scoring just 16.5 per game against 22.5 allowed, and an EPA diff of -0.0488 per play confirms this is a below-average unit on both sides. The one real angle: they're 7.3 points better versus the market than my rating implies, so the public is pricing them far worse than the numbers justify, and with Garrett Williams out and both Lopez and Billings questionable, that gap is worth a hard look before you sell them short. |
| 26 | Δ ▼7 | 0-2 | -6.3 | -0.7 | The Chargers are a legit sell at 26th with a -6.27 neutral rating, down a massive 4.16 points in a single week, and their last five games show a -12.0 point differential with a -0.261 EPA per play and a defense allowing 26.0 points per game. At -12.05 versus the market, this rating implies they should be getting roughly 12 points against a league-average opponent, so any spread shorter than that is a gift to bettors fading them. Losing Ladd McConkey and Elijah Molden only deepens the hole, though the 0.7 injury dock suggests the market may still be overvaluing this roster. |
| 27 | Δ ▼1 | 1-1 | -7.3 | -0.5 | Cleveland sits at 27th with a neutral-field rating of -7.345, meaning they'd be roughly a touchdown underdog to an average team, and that number is trending the wrong way after a -0.695 drop this week. The last five games tell the story: 16.5 points scored against 26.5 allowed, a -0.1355 EPA per play, and a -10.0 point differential, all while facing a schedule 1.993 points harder than average. At 5.18 points better than the market, this rating says the public is overvaluing the Browns, so I'm selling Cleveland and laying the points against them until the secondary gets healthier, with Tyson Campbell and Noah Igbinoghene both questionable. |
| 28 | Δ ▲2 | 0-2 | -9.1 | -0.1 | Tennessee sits at 28th with a -9.06 neutral-field rating, and that number is actually 4.13 points better than the market is pricing them, making them a sneaky buy-low despite the 0-2 start. The offense is the anchor dragging them down at just 15.0 points per game over the last five, and a -0.104 EPA per play with a -8.5 point differential confirms this is a bottom-tier unit, though the 1.396-point rating jump from last week shows real improvement. The Cordale Flott injury is only docked 0.1 points, so it's not material to the outlook. |
| 29 | Δ ▼1 | 0-2 | -10.6 | -0.4 | Miami sits at 29th with a neutral-field rating of -10.582, down 1.4 points from last week and a full 3.6 points worse than their prior-season mark of -6.974. The last five games tell the story: 13.0 points scored against 31.0 allowed, a -0.2767 EPA differential per play, and a -18.0 point differential, all while facing a schedule rated 3.85. They're still 2.39 points better than the market prices them, but with Ronnie Harrison and Demeioun Robinson both out and the rating already docked 0.4 for those absences, that gap looks like a trap rather than value. |
| 30 | Δ ▼5 | 0-2 | -11.2 | -1.9 | Washington sits at 30th with a -11.2 neutral-field rating, and that number is bleeding — down 5.2 points in a week — after allowing 30.5 points per game over their last five while scoring just 21.0. The market is pricing them 8.35 points worse than my number, which makes them a rare buy-low on the spread even though the losses of Chig Okonkwo and Frank Luvu, plus a questionable Javon Kinlaw, are already baked into a 1.9-point injury dock. At 0-2 with a -9.5 point differential and a -0.054 EPA per play, this is a bad team, but the number has overcorrected — take the points. |
| 31 | Δ – | 1-1 | -11.3 | -1.9 | The Jets are still a bottom-tier team at No. 31 with a -11.338 neutral-field rating, but the arrow is pointing up after a 1.895-point jump from last week, fueled by a +0.1855 EPA differential and a 20-15 scoring edge over their last five. Their -6.622 strength of schedule is among the softest in the league, so that recent form comes with a real asterisk, and the market's -3.2 vs. their rating suggests books are pricing them slightly better than the raw number. With Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joseph Ossai already out and Will McDonald questionable, this is a sell-high spot if the number keeps climbing on the back of a weak slate. |
| 32 | Δ – | 0-2 | -21.2 | -12.0 | Atlanta is dead last at -21.196 points on a neutral field and the bottom is falling out, with their rating dropping another 6.396 points this week after getting outscored by 19.0 per game over the last five while scoring just 8.0 points per contest. With Michael Penix out and Tua Tagovailoa doubtful, the QB room is gutted and 12.0 points of the rating are already docked for injuries, so this number is not an overreaction. The market is pricing them 9.61 points better than my rating, which makes Atlanta one of the clearest fades on the board. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →