8.3
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
#28
rank
-10.1
rating (points, neutral field)
1-4
record (2026)
-3.7
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Tampa Bay sits at 28th with a neutral-field rating of -10.1, meaning they'd be roughly a 10-point underdog to an average team, and their -3.67 vs-market gap says the books have been pricing them even worse than that. The 2.66-point rating jump is real progress, but with Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield, and Benjamin Morrison all out and 8.3 points already docked for those absences, this is a roster held together with tape at 1-4. I'd treat any short line as a sell until the injury situation clears, because a -0.02 EPA differential and 20 points per game over the last five won't cover spreads on their own.
Unavailable this week(-8.3 pts of rating)
- Baker Mayfield · QB · Out-7.0
- Antoine Winfield · S · Out-0.7
- Benjamin Morrison · CB · Out-0.5
- SirVocea Dennis · LB · Out-0.1
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2026 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | #22 | 0-1 | -4.4 | -0.8 | -1.8 | — |
| 2026 | 2 | #23 | 0-2 | -5.3 | -0.8 | -7.8 | -0.9 |
| 2026 | 3 | #22 | 0-3 | -4.5 | -1.0 | -2.7 | +0.8 |
| 2026 | 4 | #31 | 0-4 | -12.8 | -8.1 | -9.5 | -8.2 |
| 2026 | 5 | #28 | 1-4 | -10.1 | -8.3 | -3.7 | +2.7 |