NFL Power Rankings — Week 5, 2026
As of 2026-10-13
latest snapshot
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ – | 4-1 | +10.5 | -1.0 | Jacksonville sits at No. 1 with a 10.46 neutral-field rating, and their last five games back it up: 24.6 points scored against just 14.0 allowed, a plus-10.6 point differential, and a 0.249 EPA edge per play. That rating is 7.66 points clear of the market, so the books are still pricing the Jaguars like a good-but-not-elite team while my number says they're the real thing — that's a buy, though the 2.88-point drop this week and a defense missing Eric Murray (doubtful) with Josh Hines-Allen and Jourdan Lewis limited in practice are worth watching before you lay the wood. |
| 2 | Δ – | 5-0 | +8.0 | -1.9 | San Francisco sits at No. 2 with a 7.978 neutral-field rating, still 5-0 but down 0.783 points from last week, and their +4.33 vs the market says the books are pricing them even higher than this number. The offense is rolling at 30.8 points per game over the last five with a +0.29 EPA per play, but losing Bosa and Sigle on defense and having Evans limited is exactly why that 1.9-point injury dock is baked in. Buy the dip only if you're getting them near a touchdown against average teams, because this rating already accounts for the missing pieces and the market premium means you're paying up. |
| 3 | Δ ▲2 | 3-2 | +4.8 | -1.6 | Seattle grades out as the No. 3 team in the league at 4.81 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 0.53 this week despite a strength of schedule sitting at -0.849, so this 3-2 record is better than it looks. The market is still pricing them about 1.25 points short of my number, which makes them a clear buy, especially with the rating already absorbing a 1.6-point dock for Zach Charbonnet and Chazz Surratt being out. A 26.8 points-per-game offense over the last five with a +5.8 point differential is real, so lay the points while the number stays soft. |
| 4 | Δ ▼1 | 2-3 | +4.4 | — | The Rams sit at No. 4 with a 4.426 neutral-field rating, but that number dropped 1.294 points in a week and they're just 2-3 with a -0.2 point differential over their last five. At 4.426 they'd be roughly a 4.5-point favorite on a neutral field, yet the market has them 1.87 points worse than that rating implies, so this is a buy-low window on a team whose underlying -0.12 EPA... actually +0.1212 EPA per play is far better than the 24 points per game they've allowed. With no key players docked and a manageable 2.447 strength of schedule, lay the points before the market catches up. |
| 5 | Δ ▼1 | 4-0 | +4.1 | — | Kansas City sits at No. 5 with a 4.136 neutral-field rating, but that number dropped 0.887 from last week and the market is pricing them about a point better than my model (-0.98 vs. market), so I'm selling KC at current spreads. The 4-0 record is buoyed by a soft schedule (-2.597) and a prior-season rating of -2.919, yet the underlying numbers are legit: 29.5 points per game and a +0.2305 EPA differential over the last five. With zero injury points docked, this is a healthy roster whose rating still trails the elite tier, so lay off the inflated lines. |
| 6 | Δ ▲1 | 5-0 | +3.8 | -1.3 | Minnesota grades as 3.795 points better than an average team on a neutral field, sixth in the league, and that rating jumped 1.112 this week on the back of a 5-0 start with a plus-9.0 point differential and only 12.8 points allowed per game over the last five. The market sits at 3.95, essentially in lockstep with my number, so there's no free spread value here even with the rating already docked 1.3 points for injuries to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones. The concern is that this surge comes against a soft minus-2.516 schedule, so I'm treating Minnesota as a hold rather than a buy at this price. |
| 7 | Δ ▲1 | 3-2 | +3.7 | -4.8 | New England sits at +3.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 1.38 this week despite a brutal 4.34 schedule strength. The market is pricing them 5.19 points better than my number, which makes them a clear sell — especially with Carlton Davis, Christian Gonzalez, and Mack Hollins all out and a 4.8-point injury dock already baked in. |
| 8 | Δ ▲1 | 4-1 | +3.5 | -2.5 | Buffalo sits at 8th with a 3.509 neutral-field rating, up 1.206 from last week, but that number already eats a 2.5-point injury dock with Ed Oliver out and DJ Moore questionable, so the market's -2.86 vs. their rating tells me the public is still pricing the brand name over the current roster. The offense is humming at 32.8 points per game over the last five, yet the defense is bleeding 28.2 and the EPA differential is a razor-thin 0.0815, which screams sell-high on any spread north of a field goal. |
| 9 | Δ ▲2 | 2-2 | +1.9 | — | Carolina's rating jumped 1.027 points to 1.859, ninth in the league, and that surge is real: 30.25 points per game and a +0.0856 EPA differential over the last five. The market is still pricing this team 6.07 points worse than my number, which makes them the clearest buy in the league right now. With a soft 0.285 schedule and no injuries docked, lay the points before the number catches up. |
| 10 | Δ – | 3-2 | +0.9 | -2.2 | Cincinnati sits 10th with a 0.892 neutral-field rating, but that number dropped 0.693 from last week and the model already docks them 2.2 points for injuries to Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Dexter Lawrence. The offense has still posted 25.6 points per game over the last five with a positive 0.0916 EPA differential per play, yet the 3-2 record and -1.68 vs-market gap say the market has been pricing them higher than their results justify. With a strength of schedule of 0.868 and a prior-season rating of -1.335, this is a sell-high spot if the injury report keeps thinning. |
| 11 | Δ ▼5 | 3-2 | +0.8 | -1.7 | Denver sits at 11th with a 0.822 neutral-field rating, but that number is cratering, down 3.009 points week-over-week, and the -1.46 vs-market gap says the public is still pricing them closer to their 3.037 prior-season rating than their current form. The last five games tell the story: 19.4 points scored against 22.2 allowed, a -0.072 EPA per play, and a -2.8 point differential, all while missing both starting corners in Riley Moss and Patrick Surtain. That 1.7-point injury dock is only part of the problem, so I'm selling Denver hard and grabbing any opponent laying a short number, because this rating has further to fall. |
| 12 | Δ ▲10 | 1-4 | +0.3 | -0.4 | Houston sits 12th with a +0.262 neutral-field rating, but that number is inflated by a 3.343 jump this week despite a 1-4 record and a -2.21 vs-market gap, meaning the market still prices them well below this rating. Their last five games show a near-even profile -- 22.0 points scored, 22.4 allowed, and a -0.4 point differential -- so this is a sell-high spot, especially with Nico Collins limited and Jadeveon Clowney not practicing. |
| 13 | Δ ▲7 | 3-2 | -0.0 | -1.7 | Detroit's rating jumped 2.456 points this week to -0.014, essentially league-average on a neutral field, but that number already eats a 1.7-point dock for losing Brian Branch and Ya-Sin from the secondary, which matters for a defense allowing 29.6 points per game over its last five. The offense is carrying this team at 32.8 points per game, yet a +3.2 point differential against a soft -2.526 schedule tells me the market's -3.53 vs-market gap is too rich. I'm selling Detroit at current prices until the defense gets healthier. |
| 14 | Δ ▲7 | 3-2 | -0.2 | -1.9 | Pittsburgh sits at 14th with a -0.244 neutral-field rating, but that number is already docked 1.9 points for injuries and just jumped 2.475 versus last week, so the market is catching up fast. The underlying profile is mediocre — 22.2 points scored against 21.8 allowed over the last five, with a -0.0447 EPA differential — yet they're 3-2 and beating the number by 2.49 points, which screams sell-high if this rating keeps climbing. With Pittman, Dean, and Elliott all out, I'd fade any spread that prices them as a full 1.9 points better than this roster actually is. |
| 15 | Δ ▼2 | 3-2 | -0.6 | -3.2 | Chicago sits at 15th with a -0.588 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast after a -0.814 drop from last week, and the 3.2-point injury dock for a questionable Caleb Williams plus Kyle Monangai already being out tells you the market hasn't fully caught up to how thin this roster is. The +2.23 vs-market mark means Chicago has been beating the number, but with a -0.041 strength of schedule and a modest 0.0219 EPA differential, that 3-2 record is propped up by close wins rather than real dominance. This is a sell-high spot: the rating says they're barely above average, so any spread pricing them as a legit contender is a fade. |
| 16 | Δ ▲1 | 2-3 | -0.9 | -0.6 | Atlanta sits at 16th with a -0.933 neutral-field rating, meaning they grade out slightly below an average team despite a 2-3 record. The 0.855 rating jump from last week is the real signal here — this team is trending up fast, and a -0.933 rating against a typical league-average opponent implies a spread near +1, so the market's 3.68 points of value versus their rating suggests Atlanta has been underrated by bettors. The pass rush is a concern with Za'Darius Smith, Nnamaka Ebukam, and Divine Deablo all questionable, and that 0.6-point injury dock is already baked into the number. |
| 17 | Δ ▲9 | 3-2 | -1.0 | -1.1 | Green Bay sits at 17th with a -1.037 neutral-field rating, meaning they're essentially a field-goal underdog against an average team, and their -3.58 vs-market mark says the number is already shaded against them. The 7.292 rating jump is the real story here, a massive one-week move that suggests the market hasn't fully caught up, making them a quiet buy. With Javon Hargrave questionable and Chris Brooks out, the 1.1 injury dock is baked in, but the -0.0115 EPA diff and 20.8 points per game over the last five keep this a thin-margin team, not a contender. |
| 18 | Δ – | 2-3 | -3.3 | -0.5 | Dallas sits at 18th with a -3.343 neutral-field rating, down 1.541 points from last week, and that decline is real given a -2.206 strength of schedule and a defense allowing 27.2 points per game over the last five. The offense is scoring 27.6 per game but the -0.0521 EPA differential says this is a mediocre team propped up by volume, and with DeMarvion Overshown and Decobie Durant both out, the rating already reflects a half-point injury dock. At -3.45 versus the market, Dallas is fairly priced rather than a buy, so I'm treating the Cowboys as a slight sell until the defensive injuries resolve. |
| 19 | Δ ▼5 | 2-3 | -4.3 | -2.9 | Indianapolis sits at 19th with a -4.345 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly 4.3-point underdogs to an average team, and that number has cratered 3.935 points in a single week. The last five games tell the story: 24.8 points scored against 27.6 allowed, a -0.111 EPA differential, and a -2.8 point margin, all while missing DeForest Buckner and Arden Key up front. At 2-3 with a -1.01 vs-market mark, this is a clear sell — the market is still pricing them closer to average than their underlying numbers justify. |
| 20 | Δ ▼4 | 3-1-1 | -5.4 | -1.2 | The Giants sit at 3-1 but their -5.352 neutral-field rating ranks just 20th, and that number cratered 3.874 points in a week, so this start is fool's gold built on a soft -5.259 schedule. They're beating the market by 5.41 points, meaning the spread is still catching up to a mediocre underlying team, and with Chauncey Golston and Jason Pinnock both out, this is a clear sell-high spot. |
| 21 | Δ ▼6 | 3-2 | -5.9 | -2.1 | Las Vegas sits at 21st with a -5.94 neutral-field rating, but the market has been pricing them 3.12 points better than that, so the books clearly aren't buying this number as a true reflection of the roster. The problem is the trajectory: a -5.26 rating drop in one week is massive, and the underlying profile is shaky with a -0.015 EPA differential and 25.8 points allowed over the last five despite a 3-2 record. With Jalen Nailor and Dont'e Thornton out and Ashton Jeanty questionable, I'm selling the Raiders at any spread that assumes they're a near-average team. |
| 22 | Δ ▲2 | 2-3 | -6.1 | -4.1 | Philadelphia sits at 22nd with a -6.12 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly 6-point underdogs to an average team, and the market has already punished them at -4.79 versus the number. At 2-3 with a -4.0 point differential and -0.18 EPA per play over the last five, this is a clear sell — and the 4.1-point injury dock for missing Marquise Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Marcus Epps explains why that rating could sink further before it stabilizes. |
| 23 | Δ ▼11 | 4-1 | -6.8 | -8.4 | Baltimore sits at 23rd with a -6.83 neutral-field rating, and that number is cratering — down 7.46 points from last week, the sharpest drop on the board. The market is pricing the Ravens 10.9 points better than my number, which screams sell: books are clinging to the 4-1 record and last year's 3.50 rating while ignoring that Lamar Jackson is out and the defense has coughed up 23.8 points per game over the last five. With 8.4 points already docked for injuries to Jackson, Flowers, and Campbell, I'm laying the points against Baltimore until this rating stabilizes. |
| 24 | Δ ▲5 | 1-4 | -7.3 | -1.5 | New Orleans sits at 24th with a neutral-field rating of -7.32, and that number is climbing after a 2.13-point jump, though the 1-4 record, -6.6 point differential, and -0.21 EPA per play over the last five games say the underlying play is still bad. The defense is the real problem, allowing 30.2 points per game across that stretch, and with Kaden Elliss and Anfernee Jennings both out, this unit is thin at linebacker. At -0.28 versus the market, they are priced about right, so there is no edge here either way. |
| 25 | Δ ▲5 | 2-3 | -7.8 | -2.6 | The Jets sit at 25th with a -7.8 neutral-field rating, but that's a 3.5-point jump from last week and their +0.058 EPA per play over the last five suggests they're playing better than their 2-3 record implies. The market is already catching on, as their +0.32 vs-market mark shows they've been covering, yet a -7.8 rating means they'd still be underdogs of roughly a touchdown-plus against an average team, so I'm a cautious buy on the number rather than the team. The 2.6-point injury dock with Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, and Francisco Mauigoa all out is real, but the recent form and weak -1.9 schedule suggest this rating has room to keep climbing. |
| 26 | Δ ▼7 | 3-2 | -8.3 | -5.5 | Cleveland sits at 26th with a neutral-field rating of -8.33, and that number is cratering, down 6.27 points from last week after a 3-2 start that was always better than the underlying profile. The offense is managing just 18.6 points per game over its last five while the defense allows 22.4, and the rating already bakes in a 5.5-point dock for the absences of quarterback Dillon Gabriel and defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kalia Davis, so this is not a spot to buy low. At -8.33, the Browns grade out as roughly a touchdown-plus underdog to an average team on a neutral field, and with a 3.72 vs-market mark suggesting they have been slightly overvalued, I am selling Cleveland until the rating stabilizes. |
| 27 | Δ – | 0-5 | -8.5 | -0.9 | Miami sits at 27th with a -8.53 neutral-field rating, and that number already bakes in a 0.9-point dock for the absences of Caleb Douglas, Reese Taylor, and Robert Beal. The last five games tell the story: 14.0 points scored against 26.4 allowed, a -12.4 point differential, and a -0.233 EPA per play, all while facing the 3rd-toughest schedule in the league. At 0-5 with a 7.76 vs-market gap, this team has been far more competitive against the number than its record suggests, making Miami a sneaky buy-low if the market keeps pricing them like a bottom-three roster. |
| 28 | Δ ▲3 | 1-4 | -10.1 | -8.3 | Tampa Bay sits at 28th with a neutral-field rating of -10.1, meaning they'd be roughly a 10-point underdog to an average team, and their -3.67 vs-market gap says the books have been pricing them even worse than that. The 2.66-point rating jump is real progress, but with Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield, and Benjamin Morrison all out and 8.3 points already docked for those absences, this is a roster held together with tape at 1-4. I'd treat any short line as a sell until the injury situation clears, because a -0.02 EPA differential and 20 points per game over the last five won't cover spreads on their own. |
| 29 | Δ ▼4 | 0-5 | -10.1 | -4.3 | At 0-5 with a -10.15 neutral-field rating (29th), the Chargers are getting outscored by 9.0 points per game over their last five while managing just 16.8 points per game, and the -2.42 weekly drop shows this is still trending the wrong way. The market has already caught on, given the -6.46 vs-market gap, but with Derwin James and Quentin Johnston out and Ladd McConkey questionable, this is a firm sell — lay the points against them rather than hunting for a buy-low. |
| 30 | Δ ▼7 | 1-4 | -10.3 | -0.8 | Arizona sits at 30th with a -10.27 neutral-field rating, down another 3.87 points this week, and that collapse is earned: they're allowing 32.4 points per game over their last five while scoring just 21.6, a -10.8 point differential. The market is still pricing them 1.32 points better than my number, so this is a clear sell — lay the points against Arizona rather than backing them as a home dog. Losing Andrew Wingard at safety only deepens a defense that's already getting shredded. |
| 31 | Δ ▼3 | 0-5 | -12.9 | -1.8 | Tennessee sits at 31st with a -12.9 neutral-field rating, and that number is sliding fast after a 3.8-point drop this week, so this is a clear sell. The offense is scoring just 11.6 points per game over its last five while allowing 21.8, a -10.2 point differential backed by a -0.195 EPA per play, and with Amani Hooker out and Carnell Tate questionable, there is no reason to expect a bounce. At -12.9, this rating implies they should be catching roughly two touchdowns against an average team, and even at 0-5 the market is still giving them more credit than the numbers do. |
| 32 | Δ – | 1-3-1 | -15.8 | -8.5 | Washington sits dead last at 32 with a -15.806 neutral-field rating, and that number already bakes in an 8.5-point injury dock for Mariota, Diggs, and a questionable McLaurin, so the roster on the field is even thinner than the rating implies. The last-five profile is ugly on both sides: 23.0 points scored against 29.8 allowed, a -0.0568 EPA per play, and a -6.8 point differential, which is exactly what you'd expect from a 1-3 team. The market is giving them -5.5 versus their rating, meaning books are pricing Washington about five and a half points better than this model does, so I'm selling them hard and looking to fade any spread that asks them to stay within a touchdown. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →