2.1
Earl's NFL power ranking · Week 5, 2026
#21
rank
-5.9
rating (points, neutral field)
3-2
record (2026)
+3.1
vs market (Earl \u2212 line)
Las Vegas sits at 21st with a -5.94 neutral-field rating, but the market has been pricing them 3.12 points better than that, so the books clearly aren't buying this number as a true reflection of the roster. The problem is the trajectory: a -5.26 rating drop in one week is massive, and the underlying profile is shaky with a -0.015 EPA differential and 25.8 points allowed over the last five despite a 3-2 record. With Jalen Nailor and Dont'e Thornton out and Ashton Jeanty questionable, I'm selling the Raiders at any spread that assumes they're a near-average team.
Unavailable this week(-2.1 pts of rating)
- Jalen Nailor · WR · Out-0.8
- Ashton Jeanty · RB · Questionable-0.8
- Dont'e Thornton · WR · Out-0.5
Points are how much Earl docks a team's rating for each unavailable player.
Rating over the 2026 season
Week by week
| Season | Wk | Rank | Rec | Rating | Inj | vs Mkt | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | #29 | 1-0 | -9.2 | -1.2 | -8.9 | — |
| 2026 | 2 | #24 | 2-0 | -5.5 | -1.1 | +0.7 | +3.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | #15 | 3-0 | -2.5 | -1.4 | +6.0 | +3.0 |
| 2026 | 4 | #15 | 3-1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | +8.4 | +1.8 |
| 2026 | 5 | #21 | 3-2 | -5.9 | -2.1 | +3.1 | -5.3 |